Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. Steve Hilton's gubernatorial odds have collapsed 44% over the past week, dropping from 9¢ to 5¢, suggesting deteriorating viability or shifting market sentiment despite solid liquidity of $77.3M in open interest.
Analysis
Steve Hilton's gubernatorial odds have collapsed 44% over the past week, dropping from 9¢ to 5¢, suggesting deteriorating viability or shifting market sentiment despite solid liquidity of $77.3M in open interest. The extreme 3,467% implied yield on YES positions reflects the long-shot nature of this bet, though the near-zero spread indicates efficient pricing with no obvious cross-venue arbitrage opportunity. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this market remains relatively stable, though the sharp recent price movement warrants monitoring for any campaign developments that could trigger further repricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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sf trade 0x119b6b3b744ac3239c7a71100165d254234eaecea401abde5a3d303bef21d19e yes 100