Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
This contract is priced at 43¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 43¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$13.9M
Best sibling
Steve Hilton 11¢
Ticker
0x8d62f203…f2ef
Price history
43¢ current
+17¢Orderbook snapshot
43 / 43¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
0x8d62f203…f2ef
Event family
California Governor Election Winner.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$13.9M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Tom Steyer 43¢
Current share
23%
Tom Steyer
polymarket · 0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef
Steve Hilton
polymarket · 0x119b6b3b744ac3239c7a71100165d254234eaecea401abde5a3d303bef21d19e
Kyle Langford
polymarket · 0x0a46731134b06c151d4f939bec58e07d784ed50ed214141286fd8bc9561608a3
Chad Bianco
polymarket · 0x1a5b898bbfa1e697c19afeef356d9c1a6ecb95d2493c31524d3c75f16f782c3e
Katie Porter
polymarket · 0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457
Xavier Becerra
polymarket · 0xa5d79e71e66c9fe122f8b8b3ca6ab7a0e3048bd8508f130746944e92ed79ddf3
Alex Padilla
polymarket · 0x433587daba653f972f1bf49d41712ff02a0e73196c3a498a1e9d8e80c6587861
Rick Caruso
polymarket · 0x046941ddc09a5420aae85108b94bec3e1d7a3290b4144346cfc37e125282f958
Eleni Kounalakis
polymarket · 0x331cd65740d378b98427723b33b353c62241e7bdabfaa01daac48d9caf85b401
Eric Swalwell
polymarket · 0x957ddc82dc11959c5e6940b0239aecc050230c5b6ce8673bff21c14fe74bcb6e
Butch Ware
polymarket · 0xad80f8a007ce2dad75754998cc72f162b2b2eef2c6b1017b47add4f01974a5e8
Michael Younger
polymarket · 0xc6564d7fc7bb20de273fd8383fa95322a1323c18bdd3b59e04ff1140e48d04a9
Tony Thurmond
polymarket · 0xbaa911d1bdf7f43fafd9de773a43ec8ea00dd1c405a3c996e6f0f3ab365209e0
Daniel Mercuri
polymarket · 0x44efa7a078d27c6bdec7ff1f82474adfdba4626a3fd4c3c668f3b81583020cae
Toni Atkins
polymarket · 0x394b2be88763473da1df0943c934cfdc06cd33dea1c883cb178bfc56eb3a5c52
Betty Yee
polymarket · 0x43cf1b93d1b5420b158346f0e6e2993432014c4c09a213a1240fa7426c1c5af8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.319
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 43% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.