California Governor Election Winner
Leader sits at 89% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Xavier Becerra
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Steve Hilton
Spread
79pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$23K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
California Governor Election Winner
Analysis
This probability represents the market-implied chance that Tom Steyer wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently priced at 43 cents on prediction markets. The relatively modest odds reflect uncertainty about a competitive race with multiple candidates. Market participants appear to be pricing in both Steyer's name recognition and fundraising capacity against challengers like Katie Porter and others, while accounting for unpredictability inherent in statewide elections. The upcoming primary election results and campaign performance metrics will be the main drivers of how this probability shifts. Significant shifts would likely follow major campaign events, debate performances, polling data releases, or endorsement announcements that clarify the race dynamics and winnow the field of viable candidates.
- ›Tom Steyer is priced highest among all candidates at 43¢, but Katie Porter shows the largest 24-hour trading volume ($25,362), suggesting active market debate about competitive positioning
- ›The aggregated 16% average across Polymarket contracts indicates substantial probability mass distributed among multiple candidates beyond Steyer, reflecting a fragmented race
- ›No single candidate has price levels suggesting consensus frontrunner status; the top-priced candidate represents less than half of total election probability
- ›Timing of California primary election results and any candidate dropouts will materially compress uncertainty and redistribute probability among remaining viable candidates
- ›The 43% probability for Steyer specifically remains below typical frontrunner thresholds in most prediction markets, indicating markets view this race as genuinely competitive
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (89% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for the House, Senate a Toss-up
The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.
2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢
The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.