What is the current probability for "Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 605.5% and 5.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 2/17¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $26·OI $5,213.31·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x13741fbc73fb8fe44d3cc4e8ce1f38d50d0a3afeb76aff5a8195071dd54a2342

7-day price435 snapshots · 7 regime

50¢9¢ current

Apr 248¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 605.5%

IY (No) 5.9%

Adj IY 606%

CRI 10

RV 6760%

VR 27.67

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	605.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	606%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6760%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	27.67	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

15¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:56:30 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x13741fbc73fb8fe44d3cc4e8ce1f38d50d0a3afeb76aff5a8195071dd54a2342 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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