Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes position offers an extreme 797% implied yield with UNI currently trading well below the $14 target, but the 15% probability reflects the substantial distance required—UNI would need roughly 50-70% appreciation from typical current levels over 260 days.
Analysis
The Yes position offers an extreme 797% implied yield with UNI currently trading well below the $14 target, but the 15% probability reflects the substantial distance required—UNI would need roughly 50-70% appreciation from typical current levels over 260 days. The sharp 7-day price collapse from 32¢ to 15¢ combined with exceptional 1125% realized volatility and a 4.89 vol ratio suggests either recent negative information arrival (3.6/h) or mean reversion pressure, though the neutral regime and modest $200 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify future moves in either direction.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Uniswap (UNI/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the UNI/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/UNI_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Binance UNI/USDT price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4752aea49cdba4bba51d0263e60748aae3a1548f89cfe3515b1f6d91a2ef0d10 yes 100