Event families
Prediction market yield curves and outcome slates
4,097 event families across Kalshi and Polymarket. Each family groups multiple markets that share an underlying event — either spread over time (a real yield curve) or competing for the same outcome on one resolution date (an outcome slate).
Top families shown
200
Real term structures
27
≥3 distinct tenors
Outcome slates
173
single resolution date
24h volume tracked
$97.6M
Read the framework: The Valuation Funnel
Venue
200 of 200 families match
World Cup
polymarket·48 markets·1 tenor
$36.5M
24h
Spain
16%
France
16%
England
11%
Portugal
10%
Argentina
9%
Outcome slate
Fed Decision in June
polymarket·5 markets·1 tenor
$5.2M
24h
No change
99%
50+ bps decrease
0%
25 bps increase
0%
50+ bps increase
0%
25 bps decrease
0%
Outcome slate
Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup
kalshi·26 markets·1 tenor
$4.5M
24h
Spain
16%
France
16%
England
10%
Portugal
10%
Argentina
9%
Outcome slate
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$3.5M
24h
New York
78%
San Antonio
21%
Outcome slate
US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal
polymarket·7 markets·7 tenors·7d ago – 7mo
$3.2M
24h
Term structure
KXNBAGAME
kalshi·4 markets·2 tenor·2w – 3w
$2.9M
24h
New York
57%
New York
53%
San Antonio
45%
San Antonio
42%
Outcome slate
Peru Presidential Election
polymarket·23 markets·2 tenor·56d ago – 0d
$2.3M
24h
Keiko Fujimori
68%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
33%
Carlos Álvarez
0%
Ricardo Belmont
0%
Mario Vizcarra
0%
Outcome slate
Democratic Presidential Nominee
polymarket·45 markets·1 tenor
$1.9M
24h
Gavin Newsom
25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Kamala Harris
8%
Jon Ossoff
7%
Josh Shapiro
5%
Outcome slate
NBA Champion
polymarket·32 markets·2 tenor·7mo – 19mo
$1.6M
24h
New York Knicks
78%
San Antonio Spurs
26%
Oklahoma City Thunder
23%
San Antonio Spurs
22%
New York Knicks
12%
Outcome slate
Will Flavio Cobolli win the KXFOMEN-26
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$1.5M
24h
Alexander Zverev
78%
Flavio Cobolli
21%
Outcome slate
Will Karen Bass and Adam Miller be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
kalshi·4 markets·1 tenor
$1.5M
24h
Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
97%
Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt
2%
Karen Bass vs. Adam Miller
1%
Karen Bass vs. Rae Huang
1%
Outcome slate
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
polymarket·11 markets·1 tenor
$1.2M
24h
Karen Bass
61%
Nithya Raman
39%
Spencer Pratt
1%
Monica Rodriguez
0%
Asaad Alnajjar
0%
Outcome slate
Where Will Maxx Crosby Play
polymarket·32 markets·1 tenor
$1.1M
24h
Las Vegas Raiders
83%
Cincinnati Bengals
5%
Philadelphia Eagles
4%
Green Bay Packers
3%
Detroit Lions
3%
Outcome slate
Will Nithya Raman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$1.0M
24h
Nithya Raman
97%
Spencer Pratt
2%
Outcome slate
Presidential Election Winner
polymarket·36 markets·1 tenor
$1.0M
24h
Marco Rubio
16%
JD Vance
16%
Gavin Newsom
14%
Kamala Harris
5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
Outcome slate
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the U.S. Open
kalshi·52 markets·1 tenor
$924.8K
24h
Scottie Scheffler
14%
Rory McIlroy
8%
Jon Rahm
5%
Ludvig Aberg
5%
Cameron Young
4%
Outcome slate
Will New York win 4-0 in the New York vs San Antonio Pro Basketball Finals series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
kalshi·6 markets·1 tenor
$907.7K
24h
NYK wins 4-0
31%
NYK wins 4-2
20%
NYK wins 4-1
17%
SAS wins 4-3
14%
NYK wins 4-3
8%
Outcome slate
Will Alex Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Memorial Tournament
kalshi·42 markets·2 tenor·2w – 4w
$868.2K
24h
J.T. Poston
31%
Sam Burns
31%
Ryan Gerard
27%
Scottie Scheffler
14%
Ben Griffin
10%
Outcome slate
England vs New Zealand Winner
kalshi·4 markets·2 tenor·4d – 6d
$826.1K
24h
India
95%
England
93%
New Zealand
4%
Afghanistan
3%
Outcome slate
Republican Presidential Nominee
polymarket·35 markets·1 tenor
$822.6K
24h
J.D. Vance
30%
Marco Rubio
27%
Tucker Carlson
7%
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Outcome slate
F1 Drivers Champion
polymarket·22 markets·1 tenor
$758.8K
24h
Kimi Antonelli
63%
George Russell
20%
Max Verstappen
5%
Charles Leclerc
4%
Lando Norris
3%
Outcome slate
Who will win the next presidential election
kalshi·22 markets·1 tenor
$728.6K
24h
Marco Rubio
17%
J.D. Vance
16%
Gavin Newsom
14%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Jon Ossoff
5%
Outcome slate
Will Christine Drazan receive between 0% and 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary
kalshi·191 markets·5 tenors·12mo – 15mo
$700.8K
24h
30% - 35%
99%
40% - 45%
99%
60% - 65%
99%
54% - 57%
97%
20% - 25%
93%
Outcome slate
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$700.1K
24h
Vegas Golden Knights
62%
Carolina Hurricanes
36%
Outcome slate
Next French Presidential
polymarket·36 markets·1 tenor
$647.9K
24h
Jordan Bardella
26%
Édouard Philippe
17%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13%
Gabriel Attal
6%
Marine Le Pen
6%
Outcome slate
Mexico vs South Africa Winner
kalshi·216 markets·18 tenors·3w – 5w
$579.3K
24h
Term structure
Will the US Confirm That Aliens Exist Before
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$549.7K
24h
December 31
14%
September 30
7%
June 30
1%
Outcome slate
Will China Invade Taiwan
polymarket·4 markets·4 tenors·3w – 19mo
$488.9K
24h
Term structure
Spacex IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket·16 markets·1 tenor
$487.9K
24h
>$1T
99%
>$1.2T
98%
>$1.4T
97%
>$1.6T
91%
>$1.8T
79%
Outcome slate
World Cup Golden Boot
polymarket·44 markets·1 tenor
$409.3K
24h
Kylian Mbappe
18%
Harry Kane
13%
Mikel Oyarzabal
8%
Erling Haaland
7%
Lionel Messi
5%
Outcome slate
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting
kalshi·70 markets·14 tenors·10d – 20mo
$401.3K
24h
Term structure
Iem Cologne Major Winner
polymarket·24 markets·1 tenor
$396.0K
24h
Vitality
46%
Team Spirit
23%
Natus Vincere
8%
Falcons
8%
FURIA
5%
Outcome slate
Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028
kalshi·25 markets·1 tenor
$394.9K
24h
Gavin Newsom
21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Jon Ossoff
8%
Kamala Harris
8%
Josh Shapiro
5%
Outcome slate
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Winner
polymarket·22 markets·1 tenor
$386.7K
24h
Kimi Antonelli
59%
Max Verstappen
25%
Lewis Hamilton
8%
Charles Leclerc
7%
Lando Norris
1%
Outcome slate
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026
kalshi·50 markets·1 tenor
$384.7K
24h
$49,500 or above
96%
$50,000 or above
95%
$51,000 or above
94%
$54,000 or above
91%
$50,500 or above
90%
Outcome slate
California Governor Election
polymarket·23 markets·1 tenor
$384.6K
24h
Xavier Becerra
84%
Steve Hilton
10%
Tom Steyer
3%
Rick Caruso
0%
Leo Zacky
0%
Outcome slate
New York wins by over 1.5 points
kalshi·44 markets·1 tenor
$366.7K
24h
New York wins by over 1.5 points
52%
New York wins by over 2.5 points
48%
New York wins by over 3.5 points
45%
New York wins by over 4.5 points
41%
San Antonio wins by over 1.5 points
41%
Outcome slate
Will Trump say "50,000" before Jun 8, 2026
kalshi·18 markets·1 tenor
$365.9K
24h
Autopen / Auto Pen
99%
Ballroom
99%
Pratt
24%
50,000
19%
Autism
18%
Outcome slate
Will Josh Hokit win the Hokit vs Lewis professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026
kalshi·16 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7w
$357.3K
24h
Mauricio Ruffy
80%
Ilia Topuria
80%
Sean O'Malley
77%
Bo Nickal
75%
Josh Hokit
72%
Outcome slate
Who will win the governorship in California
kalshi·4 markets·1 tenor
$337.3K
24h
Xavier Becerra
86%
Steve Hilton
9%
Tom Steyer
2%
Chad Bianco
1%
Outcome slate
Iran Closes Its Airspace
polymarket·6 markets·6 tenors·1d – 8w
$336.1K
24h
Term structure
Iran Leader End of
polymarket·30 markets·1 tenor
$321.3K
24h
Mojtaba Khamenei
73%
Reza Pahlavi
6%
Abbas Araghchi
3%
No Head of State
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
2%
Outcome slate
Will Alabama win the College Baseball World Series
kalshi·13 markets·1 tenor
$320.4K
24h
Texas
22%
Georgia
16%
North Carolina
13%
Ole Miss
11%
West Virginia
11%
Outcome slate
Mens French Open Winner
polymarket·2 markets·1 tenor
$320.0K
24h
Alexander Zverev
78%
Flavio Cobolli
21%
Outcome slate
Will US Withdraw from NATO Before
polymarket·2 markets·1 tenor
$301.3K
24h
December 31
3%
June 30
0%
Outcome slate
How Many Fed Rate Cuts
polymarket·13 markets·1 tenor
$285.2K
24h
0 (0 bps)
80%
1 (25 bps)
9%
2 (50 bps)
5%
3 (75 bps)
3%
5 (125 bps)
1%
Outcome slate
Russia X Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$260.4K
24h
December 31
48%
October 31
27%
June 30
9%
Outcome slate
Will Arizona win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
kalshi·32 markets·1 tenor
$257.0K
24h
Los Angeles R
16%
Seattle
8%
Buffalo
6%
Kansas City
6%
Baltimore
5%
Outcome slate
Brazil Presidential
polymarket·17 markets·1 tenor
$242.9K
24h
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
41%
Flávio Bolsonaro
28%
Renan Santos
17%
Camilo Santana
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Outcome slate
Masters of the Universe Rotten Tomatoes score
kalshi·177 markets·7 tenors·1d – 7mo
$223.2K
24h
Above 30
99%
Above 35
99%
Above 40
99%
Above 45
99%
Above 50
99%
Outcome slate
Trump Announces US Blockade of Hormuz Lifted
polymarket·4 markets·4 tenors·0d – 8w
$217.2K
24h
Term structure
The Memorial Tournament
kalshi·132 markets·2 tenor·4w – 6w
$211.4K
24h
Scottie Scheffler
90%
Tommy Fleetwood
87%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
85%
Cooper Dossey
85%
Caleb Surratt
85%
Outcome slate
Will Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16
kalshi·190 markets·2 tenor·8w – 8w
$209.4K
24h
France
78%
Spain
77%
England
73%
Portugal
70%
Brazil
69%
Outcome slate
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit Before
polymarket·26 markets·1 tenor
$209.2K
24h
↓ 55,000
77%
↓ 50,000
60%
↓ 45,000
46%
↓ 40,000
34%
↑ 90,000
26%
Outcome slate
MLB World Series Champion
polymarket·30 markets·1 tenor
$207.5K
24h
Los Angeles Dodgers
30%
New York Yankees
13%
Atlanta Braves
10%
Seattle Mariners
7%
Milwaukee Brewers
5%
Outcome slate
Will Czechia finish first in World Cup Group A
kalshi·48 markets·1 tenor
$205.8K
24h
Spain
76%
Brazil
70%
Argentina
69%
England
67%
Germany
66%
Outcome slate
Big Game Champion
polymarket·32 markets·1 tenor
$203.8K
24h
Los Angeles Rams
16%
Buffalo Bills
9%
Seattle Seahawks
8%
Baltimore Ravens
6%
Kansas City Chiefs
6%
Outcome slate
F1 Constructors
polymarket·11 markets·1 tenor
$194.7K
24h
Mercedes
85%
Ferrari
5%
McLaren
4%
Haas
1%
Aston Martin
1%
Outcome slate
Will A's win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship
kalshi·23 markets·1 tenor
$190.8K
24h
Los Angeles D
28%
New York Y
14%
Atlanta
9%
Seattle
8%
Milwaukee
4%
Outcome slate
Largest Company End of June
polymarket·7 markets·1 tenor
$184.7K
24h
NVIDIA
93%
Apple
5%
Alphabet
2%
Saudi Aramco
0%
Microsoft
0%
Outcome slate
Iran Leadership Change
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7mo
$182.2K
24h
December 31
26%
June 30
4%
Outcome slate
San Antonio vs New York
kalshi·3 markets·1 tenor
$181.9K
24h
San Antonio wins 1st half
47%
New York wins 1st half
40%
Tie
5%
Outcome slate
World Cup Team to Advance to Knockout
polymarket·48 markets·1 tenor
$178.1K
24h
Spain
98%
England
97%
Brazil
97%
France
96%
Argentina
96%
Outcome slate
NBA Playoffs Finals
polymarket·51 markets·1 tenor
$175.3K
24h
Jalen Brunson
45%
Karl-Anthony Towns
35%
Victor Wembanyama
20%
LaMelo Ball
0%
Devin Vassell
0%
Outcome slate
US X Iran Diplomatic Meeting by
polymarket·6 markets·4 tenors·23d ago – 2w
$171.0K
24h
Term structure
KXNHLGAME
kalshi·4 markets·2 tenor·2w – 3w
$170.9K
24h
CAR Hurricanes
55%
CAR Hurricanes
51%
VGK Golden Knights
48%
VGK Golden Knights
43%
Outcome slate
Will Steve Hilton finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$168.7K
24h
Xavier Becerra
99%
Steve Hilton
1%
Outcome slate
NHL Stanley Cup Champion
polymarket·2 markets·1 tenor
$155.6K
24h
Vegas Golden Knights
64%
Carolina Hurricanes
37%
Outcome slate
Who Will Advance from the California Governor
polymarket·35 markets·1 tenor
$151.5K
24h
Steve Hilton
96%
Tom Steyer
4%
Leo Zacky
0%
Betty Yee
0%
Sharifah Hardie
0%
Outcome slate
Will Alvaro Morata lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament
kalshi·33 markets·1 tenor
$145.4K
24h
Kylian Mbappe
14%
Harry Kane
11%
Erling Haaland
6%
Mikel Oyarzabal
5%
Lionel Messi
4%
Outcome slate
Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP
kalshi·45 markets·1 tenor
$144.9K
24h
Yordan Álvarez
33%
Bobby Witt Jr.
30%
Ben Rice
13%
Nick Kurtz
9%
Julio Rodríguez
5%
Outcome slate
KXNBATOTAL
kalshi·11 markets·1 tenor
$142.6K
24h
Over 201.5 points scored
80%
Over 204.5 points scored
76%
Over 207.5 points scored
68%
Over 210.5 points scored
61%
Over 213.5 points scored
55%
Outcome slate
Cl Hit
polymarket·20 markets·1 tenor
$140.8K
24h
↓ $85
61%
↓ $80
34%
↑ $105
28%
↑ $110
18%
↑ $115
12%
Outcome slate
Which Company Has Best AI Model End of
polymarket·15 markets·1 tenor
$140.0K
24h
Anthropic
85%
Google
11%
OpenAI
4%
Amazon
0%
Meituan
0%
Outcome slate
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027
kalshi·28 markets·1 tenor
$139.3K
24h
35,000 to 39,999.99
7%
40,000 to 44,999.99
7%
60,000 to 64,999.99
7%
55,000 to 59,999.99
6%
70,000 to 74,999.99
6%
Outcome slate
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120
kalshi·22 markets·1 tenor
$138.4K
24h
Above 4.120
99%
Above 4.140
98%
Above 4.160
62%
Above 4.170
20%
Above 4.420
8%
Outcome slate
Armenia Parliamentary Election
polymarket·10 markets·1 tenor
$135.7K
24h
Civil Contract
96%
Strong Armenia
4%
Armenian National Congress
0%
Hanrapetutyun Party
0%
I Have Honor Alliance
0%
Outcome slate
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before July 2026
kalshi·5 markets·5 tenors·3w – 2.6y
$133.4K
24h
Term structure
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·8w – 7mo
$133.3K
24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns
74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns
32%
Outcome slate
The Memorial Tournament
kalshi·158 markets·2 tenor·4w – 6w
$129.3K
24h
J.T. Poston
85%
Cooper Dossey
80%
Caleb Surratt
80%
Ryan Gerard
78%
Scottie Scheffler
59%
Outcome slate
Highest Grossing Movie
polymarket·14 markets·1 tenor
$127.7K
24h
Brand New Day
56%
Doomsday
17%
Toy Story 5
15%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
4%
The Odyssey
3%
Outcome slate
The Memorial Tournament
kalshi·112 markets·2 tenor·4w – 6w
$126.0K
24h
Cooper Dossey
74%
Ryan Gerard
70%
J.T. Poston
60%
Tommy Fleetwood
41%
Eric Cole
37%
Outcome slate
Jose Alvarado
kalshi·56 markets·1 tenor
$119.8K
24h
20+
83%
10+
79%
10+
78%
20+
77%
10+
76%
Outcome slate
What Price Will Ethereum Hit Before
polymarket·14 markets·1 tenor
$119.4K
24h
↓ 1,500
91%
↓ 1,000
30%
↓ 800
17%
↑ 3,500
13%
↑ 4,000
9%
Outcome slate
Who Will be the Next Prime Minister of Israel After the Next
polymarket·17 markets·1 tenor
$117.4K
24h
Benjamin Netanyahu
34%
Naftali Bennett
28%
Gadi Eizenkot
27%
Avigdor Lieberman
4%
Yair Lapid
1%
Outcome slate
Will Brandon Uranowitz win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards
kalshi·144 markets·1 tenor
$115.7K
24h
Joshua Henry
88%
Qween Jean
85%
Caissie Levy
79%
Laurie Metcalf
79%
Joe Mantello
79%
Outcome slate
Will Alexander Albon win the F1 Drivers Championship
kalshi·22 markets·1 tenor
$109.8K
24h
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
62%
George Russell
19%
Max Verstappen
4%
Charles Leclerc
2%
Lewis Hamilton
2%
Outcome slate
Nobel Peace Prize Winner
polymarket·20 markets·1 tenor
$108.5K
24h
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Donald Trump
9%
Yulia Navalnaya
8%
UNRWA
7%
Pope Leo XIV
5%
Outcome slate
What will Donald Trump say during Meet the Press
kalshi·30 markets·1 tenor
$107.6K
24h
Deal / Settle
98%
Democrat
98%
Nuclear
98%
Election
93%
Iran (3+ times)
85%
Outcome slate
Which Party Will Gain Most Seats in Russian Parliamentary
polymarket·7 markets·1 tenor
$103.7K
24h
United Russia (ER)
55%
New People (NL)
37%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
3%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Outcome slate
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7620 by Jun 30, 2026
kalshi·14 markets·1 tenor
$98.6K
24h
Above 7620
99%
Above 7630
77%
Above 7680
54%
Above 7660
52%
Above 7670
52%
Outcome slate
Will Adam Miller finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$97.4K
24h
Nithya Raman
97%
Karen Bass
2%
Adam Miller
1%
Rae Huang
1%
Spencer Pratt
1%
Outcome slate
Venezuela Leader End of
polymarket·16 markets·1 tenor
$96.8K
24h
Nicolás Maduro
74%
Delcy Rodríguez
18%
María Corina Machado
7%
Edmundo González
1%
No Head of State
1%
Outcome slate
Will 2 Hard 4 The Radio be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jun 13, 2026
kalshi·44 markets·2 tenor·1d – 8d
$96.6K
24h
hate that i made you love me
99%
Choosin' Texas
31%
Janice STFU
2%
2 Hard 4 The Radio
1%
BE HER
1%
Outcome slate
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12%
kalshi·177 markets·7 tenors·11mo – 15mo
$87.1K
24h
Term structure
What will be Chet Holmgren's next team
kalshi·262 markets·2 tenor·5mo – 5mo
$86.9K
24h
Stays with Cleveland or Retires
77%
Stays with Oklahoma City or Retires
76%
Stays with Phoenix or Retires
72%
Stays with Golden State or Retires
51%
Miami
39%
Outcome slate
How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1
kalshi·7 markets·1 tenor
$85.7K
24h
More than 2 weeks
99%
More than 3 weeks
93%
More than 4 weeks
8%
More than 5 weeks
4%
More than 6 weeks
2%
Outcome slate
Fed Decision in July
polymarket·5 markets·1 tenor
$84.4K
24h
No change
94%
25 bps increase
4%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
1%
50+ bps increase
0%
Outcome slate
Mens Wimbledon Winner
polymarket·39 markets·1 tenor
$84.3K
24h
Jannik Sinner
56%
Novak Djokovic
12%
Alexander Zverev
8%
Jakub Menšík
3%
Daniil Medvedev
3%
Outcome slate
Will there be over 4.5 total games in the New York vs San Antonio Pro Basketball Finals series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
kalshi·3 markets·1 tenor
$83.7K
24h
Over 4.5 total games
67%
Over 5.5 total games
48%
Over 6.5 total games
20%
Outcome slate
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Ball
kalshi·89 markets·1 tenor
$80.9K
24h
Dean Huijsen
96%
Luka Vuskovic
96%
Max Dowman
96%
Desire Doue
40%
Harry Kane
39%
Outcome slate
When Will Bitcoin Hit
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7mo
$80.8K
24h
by December 31, 2026
7%
by June 30, 2026
0%
Outcome slate
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 15, 2026
kalshi·8 markets·8 tenors·9d – 13mo
$80.4K
24h
Term structure
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11
kalshi·3 markets·1 tenor
$78.6K
24h
Below $57,500.00
40%
Below $52,500.00
21%
Below $55,000.00
17%
Outcome slate
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
kalshi·4 markets·1 tenor
$72.2K
24h
Bass, Raman, Pratt
97%
Bass, Pratt, Raman
1%
Pratt, Bass, Raman
1%
Pratt, Raman, Bass
1%
Outcome slate
Fifwc Mex Rsa
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$71.2K
24h
Mexico
69%
Draw (Mexico vs. South Africa)
21%
South Africa
11%
Outcome slate
Will Xavier Becerra and Chad Bianco be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$70.2K
24h
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
93%
Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer
4%
Xavier Becerra vs. Chad Bianco
1%
Xavier Becerra vs. Katie Porter
1%
Xavier Becerra vs. Matt Mahan
1%
Outcome slate
Bitcoin All Time High
polymarket·3 markets·3 tenors·3w – 7mo
$70.1K
24h
Term structure
Will Andrea LaFlamme be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Maine
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$69.2K
24h
Graham Platner
98%
Janet Mills
2%
Andrea LaFlamme
1%
David Costello
1%
Troy Jackson
1%
Outcome slate
Will Conservative win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
kalshi·6 markets·1 tenor
$67.6K
24h
Labour
86%
Reform UK
10%
Restore Britain
2%
Conservative
1%
Green Party
1%
Outcome slate
Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran
polymarket·2 markets·1 tenor
$67.6K
24h
December 31
11%
June 30
1%
Outcome slate
Fed Decisions Mar
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$67.3K
24h
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
1%
Outcome slate
Claude Mythos Released
polymarket·3 markets·3 tenors·38d ago – 8w
$67.2K
24h
Term structure
Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
kalshi·21 markets·1 tenor
$67.0K
24h
J.D. Vance
31%
Marco Rubio
29%
Tucker Carlson
6%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
5%
Ron DeSantis
5%
Outcome slate
Spacex IPO Closing Market Cap Lowest
polymarket·8 markets·1 tenor
$66.8K
24h
1T+
99%
700B–800B
0%
900B–1T
0%
600B–700B
0%
500B–600B
0%
Outcome slate
Gc Hit
polymarket·21 markets·1 tenor
$65.7K
24h
↓ $4,300
81%
↓ $4,200
41%
↑ $4,800
9%
↓ $3,800
5%
↑ $4,900
4%
Outcome slate
Predictfun Fdv Above One Day After
polymarket·11 markets·1 tenor
$63.6K
24h
$50M
94%
$100M
86%
$200M
77%
$300M
69%
$400M
65%
Outcome slate
Best AI in Jun 2026
kalshi·18 markets·3 tenors·6d – 7mo
$60.7K
24h
Term structure
What will the announcers say during Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan UFC Fight
kalshi·17 markets·1 tenor
$60.0K
24h
Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out
99%
Legal / Illegal
99%
Slip / Slips / Slipped
99%
Train / Trained / Training
97%
Tired / Tiring
5%
Outcome slate
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-2 in the Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes Stanley Cup series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$60.0K
24h
VGK wins 4-2
24%
CAR wins 4-3
18%
VGK wins 4-1
18%
VGK wins 4-3
16%
CAR wins 4-2
6%
Outcome slate
Mls Cup Winner
polymarket·30 markets·1 tenor
$58.6K
24h
Inter Miami CF
20%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
12%
Los Angeles FC
9%
Nashville SC
6%
San Diego FC
4%
Outcome slate
Will Democrats win the House in 2026
kalshi·4 markets·2 tenor·7mo – 2.6y
$57.5K
24h
Democratic Party
77%
Democratic party
64%
Republican party
25%
Republican Party
23%
Outcome slate
Israel Closes Its Airspace
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·8d – 3w
$57.2K
24h
June 30
12%
June 15
7%
Outcome slate
Next UK Prime Minister
polymarket·21 markets·1 tenor
$57.2K
24h
Andy Burnham
60%
No Next PM in 2026
25%
Angela Rayner
6%
Wes Streeting
3%
Ed Miliband
3%
Outcome slate
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year
kalshi·28 markets·1 tenor
$56.6K
24h
Mitch Marner
64%
Jake Oettinger
9%
Logan Stankoven
9%
Taylor Hall
9%
Leon Draisaitl
8%
Outcome slate
Starmer Out
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$56.6K
24h
December 31
74%
July 31
36%
June 30
12%
June 15
1%
Outcome slate
Will the **high temp in LA** be 66-67° on Jun 7, 2026
kalshi·6 markets·1 tenor
$56.5K
24h
72° to 73°
47%
70° to 71°
28%
74° or above
11%
68° to 69°
7%
66° to 67°
1%
Outcome slate
Will New York cover -1.5 games in the New York vs San Antonio Pro Basketball Finals series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
kalshi·3 markets·1 tenor
$56.2K
24h
New York -1.5 games
71%
New York -2.5 games
49%
San Antonio -1.5 games
6%
Outcome slate
Israel and Indonesia Normalize Relations
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7mo
$55.7K
24h
December 31, 2026
9%
June 30, 2026
2%
Outcome slate
Iran Agrees to Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile
polymarket·3 markets·3 tenors·3w – 7mo
$53.9K
24h
Term structure
US Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7mo
$52.9K
24h
December 31
20%
June 30
2%
Outcome slate
Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$52.8K
24h
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
94%
2 Democrats
6%
Outcome slate
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting
kalshi·109 markets·8 tenors·10d – 11mo
$49.7K
24h
Term structure
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026
kalshi·10 markets·1 tenor
$49.2K
24h
$115.01 or above
50%
$125.01 or above
41%
$120.01 or above
39%
$130.01 or above
35%
$135.01 or above
32%
Outcome slate
Spacex IPO
polymarket·5 markets·5 tenors·8d – 7mo
$48.0K
24h
Term structure
Will Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$46.9K
24h
Pamela Evette
71%
Alan Wilson
21%
Nancy Mace
3%
Rom Reddy
3%
Ralph Norman
2%
Outcome slate
Which Company Has Second Best AI Model End of
polymarket·15 markets·1 tenor
$46.7K
24h
Anthropic
67%
Google
26%
OpenAI
5%
DeepSeek
1%
xAI
1%
Outcome slate
Colombia Presidential
polymarket·17 markets·1 tenor
$46.7K
24h
Abelardo de la Espriella
84%
Iván Cepeda Castro
18%
Mauricio Cárdenas
0%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
0%
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
0%
Outcome slate
Will New York win 15+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
kalshi·4 markets·2 tenor·4w – 5w
$46.6K
24h
15+ playoff wins
91%
13+ playoff wins
65%
14+ playoff wins
48%
15+ playoff wins
19%
Outcome slate
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11
kalshi·8 markets·1 tenor
$45.5K
24h
Above $75,000.00
10%
Above $77,500.00
4%
Above $80,000.00
3%
Above $82,500.00
3%
Above $85,000.00
2%
Outcome slate
Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 0.0 to 1.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
kalshi·14 markets·1 tenor
$44.3K
24h
Nithya Raman, 5-6%
18%
Nithya Raman, ≥6%
16%
Nithya Raman, 4-5%
14%
Nithya Raman, 3-4%
4%
Nithya Raman, 0-1%
3%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group C
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$43.1K
24h
Brazil
73%
Morocco
20%
Scotland
8%
Haiti
1%
Outcome slate
Claude 5 Released
polymarket·2 markets·2 tenor·3w – 4mo
$42.4K
24h
September 30, 2026
69%
June 30, 2026
37%
Outcome slate
Will Aniya be eliminated from Love Island USA S8E5
kalshi·13 markets·1 tenor
$42.2K
24h
Sean
35%
Bryce
21%
Sincere
17%
Zach
12%
Beatriz
4%
Outcome slate
What will the announcers say during Guardians vs Rangers Professional Baseball Game
kalshi·95 markets·4 tenors·2w – 2w
$41.2K
24h
Term structure
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur
kalshi·5 markets·1 tenor
$40.0K
24h
New York
80%
Rhode Island
22%
Ohio
2%
Pennsylvania
2%
Tennessee
2%
Outcome slate
Fifwc Nld Jpn
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$39.8K
24h
Netherlands
49%
Japan
26%
Draw (Netherlands vs. Japan)
26%
Outcome slate
Fif Grc Ita
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$39.4K
24h
Greece
45%
Draw (Greece vs. Italy)
28%
Italy
28%
Outcome slate
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Jun 8, 2026
kalshi·75 markets·3 tenors·1d – 5mo
$38.9K
24h
Term structure
Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of May 31, 2026
kalshi·9 markets·1 tenor
$38.5K
24h
160-179
99%
100-119
1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
180-199
1%
Outcome slate
What will the announcers say during CAR Hurricanes vs VGK Golden Knights Professional Hockey Game
kalshi·35 markets·3 tenors·2w – 3w
$37.9K
24h
Term structure
Fif Lie Cyp 06 07 More Markets
polymarket·11 markets·1 tenor
$36.8K
24h
O/U 0.5
95%
O/U 1.5
79%
O/U 2.5
56%
Cyprus (-1.5)
53%
Both Teams to Score
40%
Outcome slate
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine
kalshi·2 markets·1 tenor
$36.4K
24h
Democratic party
55%
Republican party
44%
Outcome slate
Will A.J. Brown win the MVP
kalshi·45 markets·1 tenor
$36.4K
24h
Justin Herbert
11%
Josh Allen
10%
Joe Burrow
9%
Lamar Jackson
9%
Drake Maye
7%
Outcome slate
Will Adam Sandler attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3
kalshi·19 markets·1 tenor
$35.9K
24h
Spike Lee
98%
Chris Rock
97%
Timothée Chalamet
97%
Zohran Mamdani
97%
Ben Stiller
96%
Outcome slate
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General
kalshi·10 markets·1 tenor
$35.7K
24h
Todd Blanche
66%
Lee Zeldin
6%
Jeanine Pirro
2%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Andrew Bailey
1%
Outcome slate
Fed Rate Hike
polymarket·5 markets·2 tenor·6mo – 7mo
$35.4K
24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?
49%
October Meeting
33%
September Meeting
27%
July Meeting
8%
June Meeting
1%
Outcome slate
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
kalshi·16 markets·2 tenor·3w – 7mo
$35.1K
24h
Above 120
97%
Above 10
96%
Above 11
91%
Above 12
83%
Above 140
81%
Outcome slate
Next Leader Out of Power Before No Orban
polymarket·24 markets·1 tenor
$34.9K
24h
Petro - Colombia President
57%
Starmer - UK PM
27%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
8%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
3%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Outcome slate
Stripe IPO Closing Market
polymarket·6 markets·1 tenor
$34.7K
24h
No IPO by June 30, 2026
100%
140B+
0%
100–120B
0%
<80B
0%
120–140B
0%
Outcome slate
Will Czechia qualify from World Cup Group A
kalshi·48 markets·1 tenor
$34.5K
24h
Spain
99%
Germany
97%
Argentina
97%
Portugal
96%
Brazil
95%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group D
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$34.3K
24h
USA
39%
Türkiye
36%
Paraguay
20%
Australia
9%
Outcome slate
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida
kalshi·3 markets·1 tenor
$34.2K
24h
Byron Donalds
90%
James Fishback
8%
Jay Collins
1%
Outcome slate
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship
kalshi·15 markets·1 tenor
$34.0K
24h
Los Angeles D
39%
Atlanta
15%
Milwaukee
10%
Philadelphia
8%
Chicago C
5%
Outcome slate
France vs Northern Ireland Winner
kalshi·81 markets·4 tenors·2w – 3w
$33.9K
24h
France
86%
Russia
83%
Spain
82%
Netherlands
78%
Azerbaijan
76%
Outcome slate
Will there be overtime in the San Antonio vs New York professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jun 8, 2026
kalshi·2 markets·2 tenor·2w – 3w
$33.2K
24h
Game goes to overtime
4%
Game goes to overtime
4%
Outcome slate
Where Will the Next US Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen
polymarket·19 markets·1 tenor
$33.1K
24h
No Meeting by June 30
67%
Pakistan
19%
Switzerland
7%
Oman
3%
Qatar
2%
Outcome slate
Will Aurora Gaming win IEM Cologne
kalshi·19 markets·1 tenor
$32.5K
24h
Vitality
47%
Spirit
22%
Natus Vincere
9%
Team Falcons
7%
FURIA
4%
Outcome slate
What will the announcers say during Spurs vs Knicks Professional Basketball Game
kalshi·53 markets·2 tenor·2w – 3w
$32.4K
24h
Injury / Injured
96%
MSG / Madison Square Garden
95%
Injury / Injured
95%
MSG / Madison Square Garden
91%
Alley-oop
79%
Outcome slate
Will the total vote count for all participants in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 550000
kalshi·23 markets·4 tenors·12mo – 14mo
$31.9K
24h
Term structure
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
kalshi·9 markets·9 tenors·3w – 2.6y
$31.4K
24h
Term structure
Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027
kalshi·4 markets·1 tenor
$31.3K
24h
Graham Platner wins
52%
Republican defeats Graham Platner
40%
Janet Mills wins
3%
Republican defeats Janet Mills
2%
Outcome slate
Will the high temp in Chicago be 77-78° on Jun 7, 2026
kalshi·6 markets·1 tenor
$30.7K
24h
81° to 82°
33%
83° to 84°
30%
79° to 80°
19%
85° or above
3%
76° or below
2%
Outcome slate
Will 21 Savage be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in June 2026
kalshi·49 markets·1 tenor
$30.6K
24h
Taylor Swift
99%
Olivia Rodrigo
93%
Drake
19%
BTS
8%
Malcolm Todd
4%
Outcome slate
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
kalshi·39 markets·1 tenor
$30.4K
24h
Japan
47%
Argentina
34%
Brazil
30%
Morocco
27%
Korea Republic
21%
Outcome slate
Fif Kvx and 06 07 More Markets
polymarket·11 markets·1 tenor
$30.0K
24h
O/U 0.5
94%
O/U 1.5
77%
Kosovo (-1.5)
59%
O/U 2.5
55%
Kosovo (-2.5)
34%
Outcome slate
Will Alabama be the Alabama vs St. John's Super Regional champions
kalshi·10 markets·1 tenor
$30.0K
24h
North Carolina
60%
Georgia
56%
Oklahoma
56%
USC
32%
Alabama
30%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group F
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$29.9K
24h
Netherlands
53%
Japan
28%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
6%
Outcome slate
Will Argentina get eliminated in the Final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
kalshi·336 markets·1 tenor
$29.6K
24h
Group Stage
50%
Round of 32
50%
Group Stage
47%
Group Stage
36%
Round of 32
32%
Outcome slate
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 87-88° on Jun 7, 2026
kalshi·6 markets·1 tenor
$29.4K
24h
86° or below
87%
87° to 88°
6%
89° to 90°
1%
91° to 92°
1%
93° to 94°
1%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group a
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$29.1K
24h
Mexico
54%
South Korea
22%
Czechia
19%
South Africa
6%
Outcome slate
Si Hit
polymarket·19 markets·1 tenor
$28.2K
24h
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
31%
↑ $80
28%
↑ $85
15%
↓ $55
9%
Outcome slate
Will Get-in price of the San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks (NBA Finals Game 3 New York Home Game 1) on TicketData be above $5000 on 8
kalshi·38 markets·2 tenor·1d – 3d
$28.1K
24h
Above $3,600
99%
Above $3,700
98%
Above $3,800
98%
Above $3,900
98%
Above $4,000
98%
Outcome slate
Will SpaceX be assigned to Communication Services in the S&P-500
kalshi·23 markets·2 tenor·7mo – 19mo
$27.4K
24h
Communication Services
82%
Communication Services
20%
Industrials
14%
Industrials
7%
Unassigned
3%
Outcome slate
Next Prime Minister of Romania
polymarket·34 markets·1 tenor
$27.3K
24h
Eugen Tomac
64%
Alexandru Nazare
10%
Cătălin Predoiu
4%
Sorin Grindeanu
3%
Ilie Bolojan
3%
Outcome slate
Netanyahu Out Before
polymarket·2 markets·1 tenor
$27.1K
24h
December 31
51%
June 30
2%
Outcome slate
Fed Decision in September
polymarket·5 markets·1 tenor
$26.4K
24h
No change
80%
25 bps increase
17%
25 bps decrease
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
50+ bps decrease
1%
Outcome slate
Will Alex Palou be the Grand Prix of Madison winner
kalshi·19 markets·1 tenor
$26.1K
24h
Alex Palou
34%
David Malukas
19%
Josef Newgarden
11%
Scott McLaughlin
7%
Pato O’Ward
5%
Outcome slate
Will Trump Attend NATO Summit
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$25.6K
24h
Donald Trump
97%
Marco Rubio
93%
JD Vance
7%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group E
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$25.6K
24h
Germany
68%
Ecuador
22%
Ivory Coast
12%
Curaçao
1%
Outcome slate
World Cup Group B
polymarket·4 markets·1 tenor
$25.3K
24h
Switzerland
56%
Canada
31%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13%
Qatar
3%
Outcome slate
Fifwc Ger Kor
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$25.3K
24h
Germany
94%
Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao)
4%
Curaçao
2%
Outcome slate
Will Akie Iwai lead at the end of Round 3 in the U.S. Women's Open
kalshi·10 markets·1 tenor
$25.2K
24h
Nelly Korda
49%
Sei Young Kim
49%
Alison Lee
29%
Gaby Lopez
5%
Jennifer Kupcho
3%
Outcome slate
Will Trump say "American Dream" before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi·30 markets·1 tenor
$24.9K
24h
Barack Hussein Obama
99%
Dead Country
99%
Genius
99%
Gulf of America
99%
Knicks
99%
Outcome slate
Gpt 5pt6 Released
polymarket·4 markets·4 tenors·1d – 8w
$24.1K
24h
Term structure
Will Tesla Inc. report above 310000 total deliveries in Q2 2026
kalshi·24 markets·1 tenor
$24.1K
24h
Above 320000
98%
Above 360000
97%
Above 310000
96%
Above 340000
96%
above 320000
95%
Outcome slate
Will over 0.5 goals be scored
kalshi·376 markets·18 tenors·3w – 5w
$23.2K
24h
Term structure
Fif Nld Uzb
polymarket·3 markets·1 tenor
$23.0K
24h
Netherlands
79%
Draw (Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan)
14%
Uzbekistan
8%
Outcome slate
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100.99 USD/Bbl on June 30, 2026 at 5
kalshi·20 markets·1 tenor
$22.8K
24h
above $76.99
92%
above $74.99
91%
above $78.99
88%
above $80.99
87%
above $82.99
82%
Outcome slate
CPI year-over-year in May 2026
kalshi·117 markets·6 tenors·3d – 6mo
$22.3K
24h
Term structure