What is the current probability for "Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1208.0% and 18.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market prices an extremely unlikely scenario—a $3B+ FDV for Ink within 24 hours of launch—at just 6% probability, generating an exceptional 2,207.7% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal liquidity ($13.5K open interest, $15.6 daily volume).

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13¢

Bid/Ask 8/18¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $117.64·OI $9,007.008·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x1d9eb6b75059a61f74c65384e23993cb35c3415479c778bf35c6a880f7469831

7-day price198 snapshots · 11 regime

50¢13¢ current

Apr 95¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

This market prices an extremely unlikely scenario—a $3B+ FDV for Ink within 24 hours of launch—at just 6% probability, generating an exceptional 2,207.7% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal liquidity ($13.5K open interest, $15.6 daily volume). The massive yield asymmetry (2,207.7% vs. 9.0% for "No") and wide 3¢ spread suggest thin order books and high uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate no recent catalyst-driven repricing. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this appears to be a speculative lottery-style bet on an explosive launch rather than a fundamentally-grounded market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1208.0%

IY (No) 18.5%

Adj IY 1208%

CRI 8

RV 1130%

VR 3.52

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1208.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1130%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

11¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:03:11 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1d9eb6b75059a61f74c65384e23993cb35c3415479c778bf35c6a880f7469831 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →