What is the current probability for "Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1208.0% and 18.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 4/13¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $3,263.768·OI $6,293.024·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x23d6498682e9ab4f6d21fa2b2a762dc72507473a1fd08991202ee4b432c1911b

7-day price557 snapshots · 31 regime

52¢11¢ current

Apr 110¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Solstice's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Solstice (https://x.com/solsticefi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1208.0%

IY (No) 18.5%

Adj IY 110%

CRI 8

RV 4159%

VR 5.49

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1208.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	110%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4159%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.49	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.91	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:56:27 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x23d6498682e9ab4f6d21fa2b2a762dc72507473a1fd08991202ee4b432c1911b yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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