Will Montpellier win?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Montpellier win?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $44.6K open interest, creating an unusually wide 87¢ spread that inflates the annualized yield to an unrealistic 2904% on both sides.
Analysis
This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $44.6K open interest, creating an unusually wide 87¢ spread that inflates the annualized yield to an unrealistic 2904% on both sides. With only 13 days until the April 25 resolution and the game apparently already scheduled, the extreme spread and zero trading activity suggest this contract may be abandoned or facing liquidity constraints that make the 50¢ midprice unreliable. The cliff risk index of 1 and neutral regime indicate potential for sharp repricing once the market approaches expiration or actual trading resumes.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Montpellier wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2604c3a0c0faa3d457025415dfaa061d4a54d608ba2b574dcd44f29fcc77b7cc yes 100