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Politics
Bills with matched marketsPublic theses
Changes in last eval- The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces tconf 1%-0.3pp6mo ago
Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, suggesting the blockade/invasion narrative is losing its primary economic and tactical catalysts.
IR 2.1%102 edges - California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignoredconf 45%-3pp9d ago
Thesis confidence dropped to 0.44 as a new Steyer-sponsored poll shows him leading the field, challenging the fragmented field assumption. While Kalshi/Polymarket divergence persists, the 'Steyer below 15%' node is under direct pressure from new polling momentum.
IR -10.3%71 edges - DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, conf 34%+3.1pp9d ago
Thesis confidence increased to 0.35 following confirmed direct Iranian kinetic attacks on US warships and personnel, which validates the conflict 'stress test' core of the frame. While the conflict node is near-certainty, the thesis remains capped by the low historical probability of these failures translating into 2026 political outcomes, though the 'capacity gap' risk (n3) is trending upward due to the immediate operational demand.
IR 8.1%359 edges - Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks stconf 0%-0.2pp6mo ago
The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.
IR 133.1%164 edges - Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump inconf 81%-1pp9d ago
The thesis remains robust; however, slight adjustments to rate-cut probabilities and inflation expectations were made to align with recent market shifts. No material breakdown of the Trump-Powell-Warsh dynamic occurred.
IR 55.3%351 edges
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