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Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

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SimpleFunctions Index

disagreement

Pascal × Fermat, 1654 — first letters on probability

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Pitch of the day

2026 Midterms: Senate Toss-Up Creates Asymmetric Policy Risk

policy▲ BUY YES·Desk · 12h ago · expires 12h

Kansas Senate blowout at 55¢ offers 512% IY — buy the margin

M3 prices a Kansas Senate largest-margin-of-victory outcome at 55¢ with 512% implied yield and only 58 days to resolution — one of the highest IY/tau ratios in the dataset at non-trivial price. Delta of +45 confirms strong recent momentum. Kansas is a deep-red state where Republican margin dominance is structurally likely. At 55¢ with 512% IY, the risk-adjusted carry is exceptional for a sub-60-day hold.

Why now

November 2026 midterm election results

Success

8 weeks · M3 resolves YES at 100¢

Risk

Race competitiveness increases due to national wave; margin shrinks below threshold

Backed by 1 recent move

512%

Regime

CRI 1.2

KkalshiKXMOVKSNESEN-26NOV03-KSSEN

Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate?: Kansas US Senate

55¢

Inspect →

SimpleFunctions Index v2Computed 5m agoEvery 15 minfull index →

Disagreement

σ 0.0

· 24h

Realized vol dispersion

Breadth

+0.17

↑4,221 ↓2,970 of 7,191

↑ 0.17 24h

Up/down skew of 10¢+ moves

Geo Risk

0 theaters · v0.0

· 24h

Theater-equal risk basket

Activity

67ᵗʰ

18k Δ / 24h

↑ 67.00 24h

Tick rate percentile vs 30d

The Desk

Edges · Thesis commentary · Macro tape

Top edges8

KWill the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) fo+60¢
mkt 10¢·thesis 70¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗
KWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their Septemb+60¢
mkt 21¢·thesis 80¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?+59¢
mkt 31¢·thesis 90¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PJapan recession in 2026?+59¢
mkt 7¢·thesis 65¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PWhat will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?: Dep+59¢
mkt 26¢·thesis 85¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3+58¢
mkt 12¢·thesis 70¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PMay Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%+58¢
mkt 7¢·thesis 65¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PFed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase+58¢
mkt 78¢·thesis 20¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗

Thesis commentary5

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains.0%→ 28%
No material change to the thesis. While there is significant volatility in Hormuz transit call markets and commodity pri
42m ago
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangl-2%→ 53%
Thesis confidence slightly decreased to 0.53 following aggressive market pricing of 'No Change' rate decisions for the s
43m ago
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those0%→ 16%
Thesis confidence slightly lowered to 0.155 as market data across shipping and energy sectors (Hormuz/Suez transit price
43m ago
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢0%→ 25%
No material change in thesis. The identified market signals (cross-venue spread and BEC orderbook pressure) confirm vola
44m ago
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto0%→ 67%
No material change in the competitive landscape. Cross-venue pricing discrepancies and sibling-model signal inputs did n
45m ago

Macro tape8

SPYS&P 500764.30+0.79%
QQQNasdaq 100715.06+1.15%
IWMRussell 2000287.35-1.10%
VIXYVIX (fear gauge)17.34-4.57%
SHY1-3Y Treasury (2Y proxy)81.44-0.22%
IEF7-10Y Treasury (10Y proxy)91.02-0.18%
TLT20Y Treasury80.87+0.21%
HYGHigh Yield Corporate Bond78.61-0.01%

Themes

Grouped by narrative

all ↗

2026 Midterms: Senate Toss-Up Creates Asymmetric Policy Risk

Senate control sits at a near-dead toss-up (Republicans 52¢, Democrats 47¢) while individual race markets in Texas, Michigan, and Maine show significant inefficiency. M3 (Kansas Senate margin) has moved +45 delta and sits at 55¢ with 512% implied yield at 58 days — a high-conviction short-duration opportunity. The outcome of Senate control directly gates Trump executive action markets, creating a causal chain from race-level pricing to policy-outcome markets.

FDA Drug Approval and Biotech Policy Mispricing

M4 (FDA approval of intismeran autogene / mRNA-4157) has cratered -57 delta to 25¢ with 231% IY over 475 days — a contrarian setup where the market may be overshooting pessimism on a high-profile mRNA cancer vaccine. The FDA approval pipeline is a policy-gated catalyst with binary resolution, and the -57 delta sell-off creates a mean-reversion entry for agents with longer time horizons. This is our designated contrarian theme going against recent momentum.

Trump Administration Instability and Fed Independence Under Siege

Trump administration markets show impeachment at 65¢ and cabinet turnover in focus, while R4 has just shifted regime from neutral to taker on Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Warsh before January 2027 — now priced at 38¢. Legislative catalyst markets on veto overrides (L2 at 34¢, 82% IY) and Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 16¢, 1,736% IY) create a connected web of executive overreach scenarios. A Trump-Warsh public break would reprice Fed independence risk across rate markets.

Insurrection Act invocation mispriced — 1,736% IY at 16¢ is asymmetric
IY 1736% · CRI 5.3

Markets

all ↗

High yield, liquidTop IY · LAS ≤ 0.15 · τ ≥ 1d

KWill the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 7 in Sep 2026?: At least 795¢
IY 38948%LAS 0.02$91518d
KWill Xi Jinping visit the United States of America before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 202692¢
IY 23574%LAS 0.02$4,66418d
KWill the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in November 2026?: Above $0.5097¢
IY 15047%LAS 0.0378d
KWill the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in November 2026?: Above $0.2597¢
IY 15047%LAS 0.0378d
KBTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 100,000 to 104,999.993¢
IY 10785%LAS 0.00$3,361109d
KAbove 285000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 285k97¢
IY 10744%LAS 0.01$5110d
KWill the price of Creed Aventus be above $320 in 2026?: Above $32097¢
IY 10744%LAS 0.03$626110d

Unusual activityVolume exceeding scheduled-catalyst expectation (residual VR)

KWill a country leave the EU by 2030?: By 203012¢
KEV market share in 2030?: Above 10%83¢
$1
KWill Republican win the House race for FL-23?: Deborah Adeimy4¢
$2
KWill Republican win the House race for ME-2?: Paul LePage55¢
$2
KWill Democratic win the House race for MI-4?: Sean McCann44¢
$1
KWill Republican win the House race for NC-1?: Laurie Buckhout41¢
$11◉ thesis
KWill Democratic win the House race for NM-2?: Gabe Vasquez89¢
◉ thesis

Politics

Bills with matched markets

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Predictions

Curated topics

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Iran81

Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios

2mo ago

Fed Rate Decisions58

Fed Rate Decision Heats Up: 56¢ Probability for a September Hike

12d ago

Oil & Energy66

Oil Rally Diverges from Equities as Energy Sector Rotates

2d ago

Recession8

Recession Risk Shifts Outward: 2027 Contract Priced at 27¢ vs 7¢ for 2026

17d ago

2026 Elections82

Midterm Election Markets Show Strong Democratic House Advantage, Toss-Up Senate

2d ago

Trump & Politics34

Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus

3d ago

Public theses

Changes in last eval

all ↗

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces tconf 1%-0.3pp4mo ago
Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, suggesting the blockade/invasion narrative is losing its primary economic and tactical catalysts.
IR 2.1%hit 26% (102 edges)
Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks stconf 0%-0.2pp5mo ago
The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.
IR 133.1%hit 35% (164 edges)
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump inconf 53%-2pp43m ago
Thesis confidence slightly decreased to 0.53 following aggressive market pricing of 'No Change' rate decisions for the summer and fall, which aligns with stagflationary pressure but reduces the immediate 'impossible triangle' volatility. Microstructure signals show aggressive buying of the DOJ investigation edge, confirming the political conflict node remains the primary driver of edge value despite some rate-path stabilization.
IR 53.3%hit 31% (356 edges)
Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay orconf 2%-0.5pp5mo ago
Recent market signals show a strong retreat in energy price expectations, specifically regarding WTI oil and natural gas benchmarks, which weakens the thesis that electricity costs will surge to the point of impacting data center expansion.
IR 50.3%hit 26% (137 edges)

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