The morning desk.

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Live scan across edges, thesis commentary, macro tape, theme cards, public theses, and bills with matched markets — refreshed every 60 seconds.

Every section pulls from data we're already computing for the platform. Quote it, fork a thesis, route an agent.

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Active theses

Universe

16,480

markets tracked

SimpleFunctions Index

disagreement

Pascal × Fermat, 1654 — first letters on probability

Last scan 1050m agoSimpleFunctions Index →Screener →Docs ↗Dashboard →API JSON ↗

Pitch of the day

Iran Geopolitical Risk Premium Severely Underpriced

geopolitics▼ BUY NO·Desk · 17h ago · expires 7h

Strait of Hormuz stays closed — 14c is a gift on geopolitical reality

R2 prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June at just 14c, now shifting to taker regime (score 0.625), signaling informed money is pressing the NO side. With US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds crashed to 24c and peace deal odds at 17c, the precondition for Hormuz normalization simply does not exist. Buy NO on R2 at 86c implied — the 14c price on YES represents a 72-point mispricing versus the diplomatic collapse signals. Jet fuel IY of 24,672 on M2/M3 confirms energy market stress is real and near-term.

Why now

June 30 US-Iran diplomatic deadline passes without meeting; oil risk premium expansion

Success

3 weeks · R2 YES resolves below 20c; Hormuz stays disrupted through June 30

Risk

Back-channel diplomatic breakthrough; Trump unilateral deal announcement catches market off guard

Backed by 1 edge · 3 recent moves

Edge

+15¢

9858%

Spread

7¢

Regime

CRI 6.1

Ppolymarket0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

14¢

KXJETFUEL-26JUN10-

Inspect →

SimpleFunctions Index v2Universe: 2,338 tickersComputed 19m agoEvery 15 minfull index →

Disagreement

σ 2.1

↑ 9.00 24h

Realized vol dispersion

Breadth

+0.18

↑1,750 ↓1,226 of 2,976

↑ 0.02 24h

Up/down skew of 10¢+ moves

Geo Risk

4 theaters · v1.1

↑ 12.00 24h

Theater-equal risk basket

Activity

100ᵗʰ

90k Δ / 24h

↑ 17.00 24h

Tick rate percentile vs 30d

The Desk

Edges · Thesis commentary · Macro tape

Top edges8

KWill average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?+60¢
mkt 13¢·thesis 72¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for June 2026+60¢
mkt 29¢·thesis 88¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above or below $5.40 by Dec 3+60¢
mkt 20¢·thesis 80¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above or below $5.60 by Dec 3+60¢
mkt 16¢·thesis 75¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 3+60¢
mkt 25¢·thesis 85¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PCalifornia Governor Election Winner: Xavier Becerra+59¢
mkt 87¢·thesis 28¢cali-governor-election ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?+59¢
mkt 17¢·thesis 75¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PMay Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%+58¢
mkt 7¢·thesis 65¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗

Thesis commentary5

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains.0%→ 24%
The thesis remains weak as the anticipated link between Hormuz transit disruptions and rural voter behavior remains unob
28m ago
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs I0%→ 44%
No material change. While there was high volume in BTC price prediction markets, the movements were largely offsetting a
28m ago
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangl-2%→ 52%
The thesis remains robust; slight reductions in confidence reflect minor dampening of stagflation indicators in labor an
29m ago
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto0%→ 36%
Steyer's market metrics show increasing buy-side pressure and tightening depth, forcing a minor adjustment in probabilit
30m ago
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs I-1%→ 44%
Market signals across Gold and BTC remain highly volatile with no clear trend breakout, resulting in no material shift t
1h ago

Macro tape8

SPYS&P 500734.47-2.83%
QQQNasdaq 100700.87-4.68%
IWMRussell 2000279.88-4.17%
VIXYVIX (fear gauge)24.32+7.09%
SHY1-3Y Treasury (2Y proxy)81.88-0.18%
IEF7-10Y Treasury (10Y proxy)93.64-0.54%
TLT20Y Treasury85.03-0.58%
HYGHigh Yield Corporate Bond79.44-0.47%

Themes

Grouped by narrative

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Iran Geopolitical Risk Premium Severely Underpriced

US-Iran peace deal odds for June 30 have collapsed to 17c and diplomatic meeting odds crashed 15 points to 24c, while Strait of Hormuz normalization sits at just 14c (R2) shifting to taker regime. The contagion from Iran diplomacy failure into energy markets is clear — jet fuel price markets (M2/M3/M16) are seeing extreme 84-85 delta moves with 24,672 IY on 3-day horizons. A 15c cross-venue style gap exists between market complacency on Hormuz reopening and the structural reality of collapsed negotiations.

Bitcoin National Reserve Cross-Venue Arb and Bearish Regime

A 15-cent cross-venue gap exists between Kalshi (13c) and Polymarket (28c) on Trump creating a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027, representing the highest-confidence arb in the dataset at 94% match confidence. Simultaneously, Bitcoin sentiment has turned structurally bearish — prediction markets give 72% probability BTC drops below $55,000 in 2026, and the edges data (E3-E11) shows thesis-implied prices of 8-18c versus 50c market prices on April BTC levels, suggesting persistent overpricing of BTC upside. The conflicting directions here are pure arb versus directional: the reserve arb is venue-agnostic while the directional BTC short exploits the bearish regime shift.

15-cent cross-venue arb on Bitcoin reserve — 94% confidence match
+19¢ · IY 1172% · x-venue 15¢ · CRI 6.7

2026 Midterm Wave Signals: Contagion Lags in House Races

A cluster of 58-64 cent contagion gaps exists across correlated House race markets in the US Elections group, where trigger markets have moved sharply (34-37 cent deltas) but lagging markets remain anchored at 12-13 cents. The structural lag between bellwether district moves and correlated safe-seat repricing is the edge — safe Democratic seats in NJ-08 and MA-01 are priced at 12-13c despite strong partisan correlation signals from MN-06, MO-08, and NY-15 triggers. This is a contrarian play against the prevailing momentum in the trigger markets, exploiting the information transmission delay.

Markets

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High yield, liquidTop IY · LAS ≤ 0.15 · τ ≥ 1d

KWill the minimum temperature be 64-65° on Jun 8, 2026?: 64° to 65°13¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.08$2871d
KWill the brent crude oil close price be above 94 USD/Bbl on June 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $9472¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$4,0081d
PPeru vs. Spain - More Markets: O/U 1.584¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$81d
KWill the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jun 8, 2026?: 76° to 77°14¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.14$121d
KBitcoin price on Jun 8, 2026?: $60,250 or above84¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.02$14,0651d
KWill AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 8, 2026?: Before Jun 885¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.14$1,1151d
KWill the brent crude oil close price be above 92 USD/Bbl on June 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $9289¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$4,2081d

Unusual activityVolume exceeding scheduled-catalyst expectation (residual VR)

KWill above 10000 jobs be added in June 2026?: Above 10,00092¢
R-VR 15.2VR 15.4$1,015
KWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps15¢
R-VR 14.2VR 16.0
KWill CPI rise more than 0.3% in June 2026?: Above 0.3%14¢
R-VR 11.1VR 15.9$69◉ thesis
KWill CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?: Above 0.4%7¢
R-VR 10.7VR 15.5$25◉ thesis
KWill above 40000 jobs be added in June 2026?: Above 40,00086¢
R-VR 10.1VR 10.4$140
KWill above 80000 jobs be added in June 2026?: Above 80,00075¢
R-VR 9.9VR 10.2$112
KWill above 70000 jobs be added in June 2026?: Above 70,00079¢
R-VR 8.0VR 8.3$9

Politics

Bills with matched markets

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Predictions

Curated topics

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Iran73

Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom

17h ago

Fed Rate Decisions26

Fed Hawks Soar: Zero Rate Cuts in 2026 Becomes Base Case

1d ago

Oil & Energy47

Oil Markets Eye $105 as Iran Risk Premium Holds

4d ago

Recession6

Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced

1mo ago

2026 Elections37

California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades

17h ago

Trump & Politics11

Trump Insult Markets Heat Up: MTG and Tucker Carlson Now Favorites

6d ago

Public theses

Changes in last eval

all ↗

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces tconf 1%-0.3pp1mo ago
Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, suggesting the blockade/invasion narrative is losing its primary economic and tactical catalysts.
IR 2.1%hit 26% (102 edges)
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stronconf 38%+4pp2h ago
Thesis confidence rose slightly to 0.38 as orderbook microstructure shows aggressive selling on front-runner Tom Steyer and a widening cross-venue arb on field fragmentation. The May jobs report (172k) provides a stable economic backdrop that prevents radical populist shifts, favoring established governing records like Mahan's.
IR -1.0%hit 16% (19 edges)
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, conf 45%-1pp1h ago
Thesis confidence increased as diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan and direct U.S.-Iran talks on uranium enrichment reinforce the 'Hormuz stability via diplomacy' baseline. Market prices for Hormuz transits surged toward thesis fair values (99c on May transit windows), validating the stabilization narrative even as 'fiscal erosion' risks remain a secondary political concern.
IR 12.1%hit 29% (218 edges)
Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks stconf 0%-0.2pp1mo ago
The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.
IR 133.1%hit 35% (164 edges)
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump inconf 52%-2pp29m ago
The thesis remains robust; slight reductions in confidence reflect minor dampening of stagflation indicators in labor and CPI data, partially absorbed by markets.
IR 47.5%hit 32% (193 edges)

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