The morning desk.

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Live scan across edges, thesis commentary, macro tape, theme cards, public theses, and bills with matched markets — refreshed every 60 seconds.

Every section pulls from data we're already computing for the platform. Quote it, fork a thesis, route an agent.

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Active theses

Universe

3,000

markets tracked

SimpleFunctions Index

disagreement

Pascal × Fermat, 1654 — first letters on probability

Last scan 706m agoSimpleFunctions Index →Screener →Docs ↗Dashboard →API JSON ↗

Pitch of the day

Bitcoin Regime Shift: Taker Flow Signals Breakout Setup

crypto▲ BUY YES·Desk · 11h ago · expires 13h

BNB $600 December at 91c: Lock High-IY Carry on Near-Certain Outcome

M20 trades at 91c with a 75-point positive delta and 22% IY over 162 days — that is 22c annualized yield on a position already deep in the money. The CRI-equivalent risk is low given BNB's current pricing well above $600 and broad crypto momentum. At 91c with 22% IY, this is a carry trade masquerading as a directional bet: you collect yield while riding a high-conviction outcome. 160-day time horizon provides cushion against a 9c drawdown before reaching par.

Why now

Continued crypto market appreciation; BNB ecosystem growth catalysts

Success

5 months · BNB trimmed mean above $600 by December 2026

Risk

Crypto bear market drives BNB below $600; regulatory action targeting BNB specifically; exchange-level risk

Backed by 1 recent move

22%

Spread

2¢

Regime

CRI 10.1

KkalshiKXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-60000

Will BNB trimmed mean be above $600.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $600.00

91¢

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26

Inspect →

SimpleFunctions Index v2Universe: 637 tickersComputed 8m agoEvery 15 minfull index →

Disagreement

σ 1.6

↓ 1.00 24h

Realized vol dispersion

Breadth

+0.38

↑1,932 ↓861 of 2,793

↓ 0.06 24h

Up/down skew of 10¢+ moves

Geo Risk

0 theaters · v0.0

· 24h

Theater-equal risk basket

Activity

71ᵗʰ

27k Δ / 24h

↑ 21.00 24h

Tick rate percentile vs 30d

The Desk

Edges · Thesis commentary · Macro tape

Top edges8

PFed rate hike by...?: October Meeting+60¢
mkt 68¢·thesis 8¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗
PWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor+60¢
mkt 11¢·thesis 70¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PWhat will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?: Dep+59¢
mkt 26¢·thesis 85¢powell-warsh-fed-succession ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $4.00?+59¢
mkt 26¢·thesis 85¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?+59¢
mkt 14¢·thesis 72¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?+59¢
mkt 16¢·thesis 75¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
KWill average **gas prices** be above $4.25?+59¢
mkt 16¢·thesis 75¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗
PMay Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%+58¢
mkt 7¢·thesis 65¢fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis ↗

Thesis commentary5

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains.0%→ 25%
Recent June CPI data showed an unexpected -0.4% contraction, significantly weakening the 'sticky food inflation' causal
46m ago
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those0%→ 37%
Confidence decreased slightly to 0.35 due to emerging signs that federal rehiring is slightly mitigating capacity loss r
47m ago
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangl-1%→ 81%
Thesis confidence softened slightly to 0.81 due to unexpected USD resilience and a sharp collapse in 'dovish' market pri
47m ago
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢0%→ 27%
No material change to thesis; recent price moves in Becerra markets and cross-venue discrepancies are statistically insi
48m ago
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto0%→ 44%
No material developments; the observed market volatility remains within noise bounds and does not necessitate a confiden
48m ago

Macro tape8

SPYS&P 500748.38+0.05%
QQQNasdaq 100703.90-0.62%
IWMRussell 2000293.05-1.19%
VIXYVIX (fear gauge)20.73+0.53%
SHY1-3Y Treasury (2Y proxy)81.83-0.07%
IEF7-10Y Treasury (10Y proxy)93.10-0.21%
TLT20Y Treasury83.47-0.19%
HYGHigh Yield Corporate Bond79.52-0.16%

Themes

Grouped by narrative

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Bitcoin Regime Shift: Taker Flow Signals Breakout Setup

Multiple Bitcoin contracts have simultaneously shifted from neutral to taker regime (R4, R5, R6, R7), signaling that informed flow is accumulating directional exposure at current levels. IBIT ETF is up 1.85% and M20 (BNB above $600 by December) already trades at 91c with a 75-point delta, suggesting crypto broadly is in a momentum phase. The edge is in identifying which specific price targets are mispriced relative to the emerging taker regime.

BNB $600 December at 91c: Lock High-IY Carry on Near-Certain Outcome
IY 22% · CRI 10.1

Amazon Earnings Regime: Conflicting Signals, Yield Harvest

Multiple Amazon earnings call contracts (M5, M6, M8, M10, M11, M13) show opposing deltas on the same underlying event — M5/M8 dropped -68/-57 while M10/M11 gained +63/+61 — indicating the market is aggressively rotating between specific outcome buckets rather than repricing the event directionally. With 160-day tau and IY of 28-186%, the absolute yield on these positions is attractive regardless of direction. SpaceX earnings (M13) at 74c with 79% IY adds a correlated high-yield opportunity in the same earnings-call event category.

Markets

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High yield, liquidTop IY · LAS ≤ 0.15 · τ ≥ 1d

KWill Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 24 at 10:00 AM ET?: Jon Ossoff92¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$4,3331d
KPinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 5595¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$6,4964d
KWill the gold close price be above 3511.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: Above $3511.9997¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.038d
KWill the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.92 on Jul 31?: Above $0.9296¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.018d
KWill the Bank of England Maintain current rate at the July Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting?: Maintain current rate96¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$07d
KPinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 5096¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.03$4,4264d
KWill average **gas prices** be above $4.16?: Above 4.1697¢
IY 100000%LAS 0.01$2,7247d

Unusual activityVolume exceeding scheduled-catalyst expectation (residual VR)

KWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps3¢
R-VR 39.5VR 43.1
KWill CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?: Above -0.4%89¢
R-VR 37.4VR 37.9$2
KWill CPI rise more than -0.3% in August 2026?: Above -0.3%3¢
R-VR 34.9VR 35.4$6
KWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.5%97¢
R-VR 34.3VR 34.7
KWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.9%97¢
R-VR 34.1VR 34.6
KWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.6%97¢
R-VR 33.6VR 34.1
KWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.75%18¢
R-VR 20.8VR 24.5◉ thesis

Politics

Bills with matched markets

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Predictions

Curated topics

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Iran81

Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios

1mo ago

Fed Rate Decisions45

Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise

11h ago

Oil & Energy59

Oil and Natural Gas Surge, Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand

11h ago

Recession6

Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced

2mo ago

2026 Elections53

2026 Midterm Elections: High-Volume Action on House and Senate Control

4d ago

Trump & Politics20

Trump Tariffs: High Probability of New Trade Actions

4d ago

Public theses

Changes in last eval

all ↗

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces tconf 1%-0.3pp3mo ago
Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, suggesting the blockade/invasion narrative is losing its primary economic and tactical catalysts.
IR 2.1%hit 26% (102 edges)
Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks stconf 0%-0.2pp3mo ago
The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.
IR 133.1%hit 35% (164 edges)
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump inconf 81%-1.5pp47m ago
Thesis confidence softened slightly to 0.81 due to unexpected USD resilience and a sharp collapse in 'dovish' market pricing, which challenges the 'impossible triangle' pressure on the Fed. While political nodes remain locked and dominant, the decoupling of the dollar (n5.3) suggests the Fed may have more breathing room than initially theorized.
IR 50.4%hit 33% (220 edges)
Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay orconf 2%-0.5pp3mo ago
Recent market signals show a strong retreat in energy price expectations, specifically regarding WTI oil and natural gas benchmarks, which weakens the thesis that electricity costs will surge to the point of impacting data center expansion.
IR 50.3%hit 26% (137 edges)

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