Will Bayonne win?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Bayonne win?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 90¢ spread despite the 50¢ midpoint, suggesting minimal trading activity and potential difficulty executing positions.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 90¢ spread despite the 50¢ midpoint, suggesting minimal trading activity and potential difficulty executing positions. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2909.3% on both sides is a red flag indicating mispricing or data anomaly, as such yields are economically unrealistic for a binary event resolving in 13 days. With only $60.5k open interest and the game scheduled for April 25 (before the May 2 close date), this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the quoted price may not reflect genuine consensus odds.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Bayonne wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2be3f69f4efd2924fb777732f708a27af962a5703386fe0eb2c37ed3ba78a217 yes 100