Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, rallying 73% over seven days from 30¢ to 52¢, suggesting recent bullish sentiment on oil prices despite the neutral regime score. The extremely high realized volatility of 588% and vol ratio of 2.67 indicate substantial price swings, while the 10¢ spread and modest $75k daily volume suggest relatively thin liquidity for a binary with $200k open interest. With 74 days to expiry and an implied probability of 52% for oil settling above $90, the asymmetric yields (455% vs 534%) reflect the market's uncertainty about whether crude can sustain a $90+ level by late June 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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Regime

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