Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Leader sits at 97% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$63
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
$60
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$281
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $85
0xae1cda…ab57
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $70
0x61992d…30ca
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $80
0x56c1e2…4e32
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $65
0x19809b…b487
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $75
0x40f8bd…a706
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $56
0x004923…3c75
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $60
0x30cbc7…565b
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $55
0x43fe6f…0ecc
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $63
0x3e0989…ec3f
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $90
0x2c50e5…8140
Analysis
This contract reflects a 97% probability that crude oil will trade above $65 per barrel by the end of June 2026. The high confidence likely reflects current market conditions where oil is trading near or above this level, combined with the short time horizon (about 4 weeks) that limits major directional moves. The probability could shift if geopolitical tensions ease, production increases unexpectedly, or demand forecasts weaken—conversely, supply disruptions or escalating conflicts would support higher prices. The key catalysts include upcoming API and EIA inventory reports, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production policy, and broader economic data affecting energy demand. The gap between the $65 contract (97%) and $75 contract (75%) suggests moderate uncertainty about sustained strength above current levels.
- ›Current WTI crude spot price relative to $65 strike and distance from contract expiration (~4 weeks)
- ›Recent OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates affecting near-term supply
- ›Geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East or other major producing regions
- ›USD strength and real-interest-rate expectations, which inversely affect commodity prices
- ›Weekly API and EIA inventory reports showing US crude stock builds or draws
What moved the line
- Jun 5$85↓7pp67→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2$90↑7pp49→56¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7$85↑6pp58→64¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4$85↑5pp62→67¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3$85↑4pp58→62¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 18% · 1d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 2d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 2d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 5d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Oil Markets Eye $105 as Iran Risk Premium Holds
Crude oil continues to rally (USO +1.25%) as the probability of WTI hitting $105 by end of June rose 1¢ to 40¢. The decline in the 'oil below $85' contract by 7¢ signals traders are pricing out a near-term resolution to supply concerns.
Oil Markets Reprice as Hormuz Blockade Endgame Nears
WTI crude contracts are seeing aggressive repricing as the probability of the US lifting the Hormuz blockade by June 30 rises to 70%, up 8¢. The 'WTI ↓ $85' May contract collapsed 43¢, while '↓ $80' fell 5¢. Traders are pricing in a potential supply surge if the blockade ends, but the Iran deal timeline remains uncertain, creating volatility.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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