Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The 79¢ price implies a 79% probability of crude oil exceeding $70 by June 2026, but the extreme 1857.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—traders betting against the outcome face dramatically outsized returns, suggesting the market may be overweighting the bullish case. The 14¢ spread combined with zero 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 350% indicates this is an illiquid, highly volatile market where the sharp 19¢ price movement over seven days may reflect thin order books rather than fundamental conviction. With 74 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the Cliff Risk Index of 4 suggests moderate tail risk, but the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about taking either side at current prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade