Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 741% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 27% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of phone announcement probability despite OpenAI's known hardware ambitions.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 741% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 27% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of phone announcement probability despite OpenAI's known hardware ambitions. The 16¢ price has declined sharply from 23¢ over seven days amid zero 24-hour volume, indicating potential stale pricing on $786k open interest with a wide 15¢ spread that may not reflect recent sentiment shifts. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1467%) and info arrival rate of 3.5 events per hour signal this is a highly reactive market where breaking news about OpenAI's product roadmap could trigger substantial repricing before the 259-day expiration.
Also on kalshi at 9¢(Δ +6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
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sf trade 0x2d9e8b66e63e7b169416eed9d241a5aa633ba0052f553bb64a824e21f1be04c4 yes 100