Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?
0x9808175a3da0c4c5c12884209195e3e6236bd82ce435f34e6b88c92b0a7c4db9 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 530.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 37.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.52 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2942% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 12.15 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 6.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 252% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
907 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
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