Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ price generating an absurd 1623% implied yield on the Yes side, yet it's completely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $2.1K open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ price generating an absurd 1623% implied yield on the Yes side, yet it's completely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $2.1K open interest. The price has collapsed 38% over seven days (from 13¢ to 8¢) despite no apparent news catalyst, suggesting either forced liquidations or a single large seller, while the 2.92 volatility ratio and 1026% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative position rather than a genuine probability assessment. With 259 days to expiry and OpenAI's demonstrated interest in hardware (ChatGPT app ecosystem, potential device partnerships), the 8% probability appears artificially depressed and may represent an arbitrage opportunity if you believe the true probability exceeds 10-15%.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc15a7548e3f5c17dd61cebeba2f105ce6a8c36e5dce50331ad308b26094c5a78 yes 100