Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Pamela Evette's odds have surged 42% over seven days (from 19¢ to 27¢), suggesting recent positive information arrival at a rate of 2.2 events per hour, though zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this price movement reflects genuine market activity or thin liquidity dynamics. The 11¢ spread is substantial relative to the 27¢ price, and the extreme implied yield of 2,271% on the Yes side indicates either deep uncertainty or potential mispricing given the market closes in just 51 days. The 768% realized volatility and 3.0 cliff risk index suggest this is a highly unstable market with significant tail risk, though alignment with Kalshi's 27¢ price provides some cross-venue validation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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