Will Pamela Evette be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?

31¢

Bid/Ask 28/29¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $88·OI $21,972.13·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVSCNOMR-26-PEVE

7-day price164 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Evette's nomination odds have surged 80% over the past week (15¢ to 27¢), now trading at a notable 7-cent premium to Polymarket (31¢ vs 24¢), suggesting Kalshi traders are pricing in more upside momentum or recent positive developments. The extreme 497% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $95 daily volume and tight $22k open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as we approach the November 2026 nomination deadline. The 257% realized volatility and elevated info arrival rate (0.4/h) suggest this market is actively digesting new information, making the cross-venue gap potentially exploitable for sophisticated traders.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 28¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 1861.8%Close-time delta 3543h

Resolution rules

If Pamela Evette wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 473.9%

IY (No) 71.7%

Adj IY 440%

CRI 3

RV 254%

VR 1.24

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	473.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	71.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	440%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	254%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.24	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 2:18:46 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 2:08:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVSCNOMR-26-PEVE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →