South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 81% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Pamela Evette
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Alan Wilson
Spread
69pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$34K
liquid
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner
South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Pamela Evette
0x2ff32c…b36b
South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Rom Reddy
0x10a209…80a6
South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Alan Wilson
0xfec5e4…c190
South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Nancy Mace
0xf56122…9509
Analysis
The current 35% probability reflects the market's assessment that a particular candidate leads the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary race, though no outcome is heavily favored—the top four candidates range from 21% to 35%. The primary outcome will be determined by voter preferences in South Carolina's Republican primary election, with key drivers including candidate name recognition, fundraising totals, endorsements from state party leadership, and turnout patterns among different voter segments. The Republican primary election date, along with any major polling releases or campaign developments in the months preceding it, will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market. Currently fragmented support across multiple viable candidates suggests genuine uncertainty about who will ultimately secure the nomination.
- ›Top candidate has 35% implied probability while runner-up holds 30%, indicating competitive field with no dominant frontrunner across four major candidates
- ›Pricing varies significantly across platforms and specific candidate contracts, suggesting liquidity concentration and potential arbitrage opportunities reflecting uncertainty
- ›24-hour trading volumes range from $1,380 to $2,619 across related contracts, indicating moderate but not exceptional market engagement for this race
- ›Candidate fundraising levels, donor support networks, and grassroots organization strength will measurably affect final primary vote shares
- ›Official South Carolina Republican primary election date will serve as the hard resolution point, with all current probabilities representing pre-election market expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 4Pamela Evette↓15pp81→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Alan Wilson↑14pp13→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7Alan Wilson↓8pp25→17¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Alan Wilson↓7pp27→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Alan Wilson↑6pp14→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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