Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing May 11, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility despite its modest $820 open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread indicating thin order books.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility despite its modest $820 open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and an 8¢ spread indicating thin order books. The price has collapsed 47% over seven days (from 19¢ to 10¢), yet the implied yield on "Yes" remains absurdly high at 16,985%, suggesting either a data artifact or severe mispricing given the 25-day horizon to resolution. With a realized volatility of 1,142% and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be a speculative position on a relatively unknown contestant rather than an efficiently-priced prediction market.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
The season finale of American Idol is scheduled for May 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who wins Season 24 of American Idol. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be the live broadcast of the show, American Idol, and ABC.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x344d7c781176ec4f5c5c58b0ccf4f23d0e7d6d60a8ce107375b9e60f86dcbbd8 yes 100