What is the current probability for "Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 57.5% and 62.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 9/91¢·Spread 82¢·Vol $2.13·OI $38.485·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x367d799ed9334ff44fe198976abe90b45f32e6198d73f853d06cbaf14ac6a36b

7-day price499 snapshots · 3 regime

64¢50¢ current

Apr 2332¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 57.5%

IY (No) 62.3%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 597%

VR 7.42

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	57.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	62.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	597%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.42	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.61	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

82¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:56:24 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x367d799ed9334ff44fe198976abe90b45f32e6198d73f853d06cbaf14ac6a36b yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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