What is the current probability for "Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 40¢ (40% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 89.8% and 39.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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40¢

Bid/Ask 7/72¢·Spread 65¢·Vol $0·OI $103.99·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x3708f8525325f25887d7b87df0b70c141bd0e2c77bd698e2663e6ee6c21614a8

7-day price499 snapshots · 10 regime

53¢40¢ current

Apr 2210¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 89.8%

IY (No) 39.9%

Adj IY 90%

CRI 2

RV 937%

VR 11.42

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	89.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	90%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	937%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	11.42	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

65¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:56:53 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3708f8525325f25887d7b87df0b70c141bd0e2c77bd698e2663e6ee6c21614a8 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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