Will Stade Francais win?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Stade Francais win?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extreme 88¢ spread despite moderate $44k open interest, suggesting the 49¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market displays severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extreme 88¢ spread despite moderate $44k open interest, suggesting the 49¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yields (3020% for Yes, 2788% for No) are artifacts of the wide bid-ask spread rather than genuine opportunity, and with only 13 days to resolution and a game scheduled for April 25, there's elevated cliff risk as the market approaches expiry with minimal trading activity. The neutral regime and maxed-out Cliff Risk Index (1.0) indicate this is a dead or illiquid market where any trade could move prices dramatically, making it unsuitable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Stade Francais wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3a144704beaaabec41ae37469245eb8d04c82cff2670796714ea14c9cda83c49 yes 100