What is the current probability for "Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1137.9% and 3.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 2/8¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $3,480.342·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x3e2162546c32d796f7a4681ca2c4db64201a682871bfae31191eaede97c0c1f6

7-day price152 snapshots · 5 regime

50¢5¢ current

Apr 91¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Billion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Billions (https://x.com/billions_ntwk) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1137.9%

IY (No) 3.2%

Adj IY 569%

CRI 19

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1137.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	569%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:57:22 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3e2162546c32d796f7a4681ca2c4db64201a682871bfae31191eaede97c0c1f6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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