Will the match end in a draw?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the match end in a draw?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a 33,457% implied yield on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume despite $140 in open interest, suggesting the 8¢ price may be stale or artificially depressed.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a 33,457% implied yield on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume despite $140 in open interest, suggesting the 8¢ price may be stale or artificially depressed. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the cliff risk index of 12 indicates significant uncertainty around the April 25 resolution date just 13 days away. The asymmetric yield profile (Yes at 33,457% versus No at 253%) combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this market may be mispriced or suffering from low liquidity that's distorting the probability assessment.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x40fb79995b685317b3b5fc5989d75733d34f3352b04ac88daeceaeddd26b8ebc yes 100