Will Castres Olympique win?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Castres Olympique win?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $42k open interest and an extraordinarily wide 89¢ spread that creates a 2909% annualized yield on both sides—a clear sign of stale pricing rather than genuine market activity.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $42k open interest and an extraordinarily wide 89¢ spread that creates a 2909% annualized yield on both sides—a clear sign of stale pricing rather than genuine market activity. The resolution date (April 25, 2026) has already passed relative to the market close date of May 2, 2026, suggesting the underlying game may have already occurred, yet the market remains open with a neutral regime score, indicating potential data staleness or resolution delays. The symmetric yield across both outcomes and maximum cliff risk index of 1 suggest this is a dead or malfunctioning market that should be avoided until liquidity providers return or resolution occurs.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Castres Olympique wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4228878f3f4829d18ad016b7e6180b33c56f70ab263eb527f1e76f8f98d55431 yes 100