Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24?

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extraordinarily wide 62¢ spread, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the $223.556 open interest.

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39¢
Bid/Ask 38/40¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $267.126·OI $3,551.333·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0x4f9181cfa1844dd62a893b9aa4f13def1d8c15b1a51b4bdd84deeb8f969f94f9
7-day price139 snapshots · 2 regime
46¢39¢ current
Apr 1838¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extraordinarily wide 62¢ spread, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the $223.556 open interest. The astronomical implied yields (9,614% for Yes, 4,642% for No) are artifacts of minimal trading activity rather than genuine opportunities, and the 437% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicates extreme uncertainty with the match just 5 days away. The slight 2¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks conviction, making this a low-confidence prediction environment where the wide spread creates significant execution risk for any trader.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 24, 2026 If Club Puebla wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 24314.2%
IY (No) 9938.7%
Adj IY 24314%
CRI 2
RV 612%
VR 0.42
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)24314.2%
IY (No)9938.7%
Adj IY24314%
CRI2
RV612%
VR0.42
IAR1.8/h
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:44:11 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:38:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x4f9181cfa1844dd62a893b9aa4f13def1d8c15b1a51b4bdd84deeb8f969f94f9 yes 100

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