Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?

The Republican contract has collapsed 17% over the past week to just 25¢, implying Democrats are now heavy favorites in this traditionally competitive district, though the extreme 553.8% implied yield on the Yes side and 2,311% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing. With only $1,840 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 14¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The high information arrival rate (5.1/h) and neutral regime indicate active market dynamics with 198 days until resolution, but traders should be cautious given the illiquid conditions and potential for sharp reversals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade