Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?

This market is pricing a 50/50 coin flip on Theo reaching a $100M FDV within 24 hours of launch, with symmetric 141% annualized yields on both sides suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 50¢ midpoint (22% of price), indicating thin liquidity despite $6.6M open interest, and the token has appreciated 16% over seven days as launch approaches. With 259 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market carries execution risk around the launch event itself, making the high symmetric yields somewhat misleading—the actual risk-adjusted yield of 70% better reflects the binary nature of the resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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