Will Trump be impeached before his term ends
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends is priced at 66¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 63¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
66¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Outcome
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$13
Identifier
0x553a941e...cab7
Jun 8, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$13
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$13
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 68¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
0x553a941e…cab7
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 18¢, +48¢ versus this page.
Event family
Related outcomes.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends 66¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 66% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.