Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
909 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term” vs “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Cluster 2
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?: Before 2029
KXAMEND25-29
Cluster 3
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends
KXTRUMPREMOVE
Analysis
This contract resolves to 35% based on whether Donald Trump publicly announces an end to U.S. military operations against Iran by a specified date. The probability reflects a roughly one-in-three chance of such an announcement occurring. Two main drivers shape this level: ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Trump's historical negotiating style, which has included both military escalation and sudden diplomatic reversals. The contract will be resolved when the deadline passes or Trump makes a formal statement ending military operations. Markets assign this moderate probability, suggesting traders see material but uncertain odds—neither treating it as highly likely nor dismissive. The Kalshi-Polymarket gap of 9 percentage points indicates some disagreement about the likelihood, possibly reflecting different assessments of current Iran-U.S. relations or Trump's policy trajectory.
- ›Current status of active U.S. military operations against Iranian targets or Iranian proxies as of June 2026
- ›Public statements and policy declarations by Trump administration officials regarding Iran military engagement in preceding weeks
- ›Historical pattern of Trump's approach to Iran negotiations versus military action during his political career
- ›Occurrence of any major escalatory or de-escalatory events in U.S.-Iran relations before the resolution deadline
- ›Specific contractual deadline date and whether it allows sufficient time for policy announcements to occur
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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