Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 40%, Polymarket at 31% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
5 contracts
Polymarket
31%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$99K
13 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
958 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (31¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Trump be impeached” vs “Israel military action against”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump be impeached
Cluster 2
Israel military action against
Cluster 3
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Cluster 4
US military action against Cuba by
US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31
0x3de0f3…7de0
Cluster 5
Who will attend the NATO Summit
Who will attend the NATO Summit?: Donald Trump
0x71ee9c…7758
Cluster 6
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?: Yes
KXTRUMPATTEND
Cluster 7
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency
Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?: Before 2029
KXAMEND25-29
Cluster 8
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
0x0dc458…fe20
Cluster 9
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
0x9c414c…d667
What moved the line
- Jun 3Donald Trump↑11pp75→86¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1June 30↑6pp12→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Donald Trump↑6pp69→75¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?↓6pp66→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7December 31↓5pp43→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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