Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The 58¢ price implies a 58% probability of crude oil exceeding $80 by June 2026, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 24¢ spread, suggesting limited conviction behind either side. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2040% and risk-adjusted implied yield of 705% indicate extreme uncertainty, likely driven by the 72-day timeframe and sensitivity to geopolitical shocks; notably, the "No" side offers 704.5% annualized yield compared to 369.4% for "Yes," suggesting the market may be pricing in mean reversion from current oil prices well below the $80 threshold. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and information arrival rate of 3.5 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative contract where pricing could shift dramatically on energy policy announcements or supply disruptions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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