Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0x64d31a2af85518c6718a5757a35b840f08eca20c1e22c0eb1e96ec01cc55b8b6 · closes Nov 7, 2028 · 938 days remaining
Price
Last
3¢
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h Volume
$100,242.478
Open Interest
$288,325.531
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1257.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 32 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.00 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 629% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 72 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.341
Label
neutral
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:18:09 PM
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x64d31a2af85518c6718a5757a35b840f08eca20c1e22c0eb1e96ec01cc55b8b6 yes 100