Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Ron DeSantis is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
51¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ron DeSantis
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 71¢
Range
2¢-71¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
May 25, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
53¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$26K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
53 / 58¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ron DeSantis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 4¢, +47¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 71¢
Current share
0%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Tucker Carlson
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Glenn Youngkin
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU
Josh Hawley
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW
Thomas Massie
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS
Brian Kemp
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM
Donald J. Trump Jr.
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Byron Donalds
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Greg Abbott
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-GABB
Erika Kirk
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ
Elise Stefanik
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE
Elon Musk
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-EMUS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.