Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Leader sits at 25% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marco Rubio
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Thomas Massie
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$60K
liquid
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
887 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Analysis
Marco Rubio is priced at 21% probability to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting market expectations that he faces meaningful but not dominant odds against other potential candidates. This estimate is shaped primarily by his current position as Secretary of State, which provides visibility and establishment credibility but may constrain his ability to campaign actively. The nomination process typically hinges on early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, scheduled for early 2028, where candidate performance and momentum often reshape expectations significantly. Key uncertainty exists around whether other figures—including those currently less visible in markets—might consolidate support or withdraw from contention as the primary season approaches, materially altering the distribution of probabilities among remaining candidates.
- ›Rubio's Cabinet position provides institutional platform but limits independent campaigning compared to full-time candidates
- ›Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in early 2028 will be decisive testing grounds; early primary results historically shift nomination odds substantially
- ›No single candidate commands majority probability; the second-place finisher trades at 8%, indicating fragmented field and potential for support consolidation
- ›Candidate withdrawals or entries between now and voting could redistribute the 79% probability assigned to non-Rubio outcomes
- ›Market pricing reflects limited historical precedent for sitting Secretary of State securing their party's nomination without prior gubernatorial or Senate voting record
Recently closed in election 2026
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- New Mexico Governor Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 4% · 0d
- Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- SD-AL Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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