Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a heavily favored outcome at 93¢ with exceptionally tight liquidity ($19.6k open interest, $704 daily volume), creating a classic "thin market at extreme odds" scenario where the 2425.6% implied yield on the No side reflects minimal real conviction rather than genuine uncertainty. With 200 days to expiry and zero price movement over the past week, this appears to be a settled market on a safe Democratic seat, though the 13-point Cliff Risk Index suggests potential for sharp repricing if conditions shift. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the illiquidity—any significant new information could face slippage challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade