Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Manchester City's 66¢ price reflects a two-thirds probability of winning the 2025-2026 FA Cup, but the market shows extreme yield asymmetry with "No" positions offering 2,449.9% implied yield versus just 650.2% for "Yes," suggesting significant mispricing or hedging demand.
Analysis
Manchester City's 66¢ price reflects a two-thirds probability of winning the 2025-2026 FA Cup, but the market shows extreme yield asymmetry with "No" positions offering 2,449.9% implied yield versus just 650.2% for "Yes," suggesting significant mispricing or hedging demand. With only 29 days to resolution and just $400 in 24-hour volume against $3.6M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate the market has stabilized, though the 3¢ spread and low volume warrant caution for large position entries.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6a20817e4900c33d9b4965c68172a9b3918f0285ea5a9ad108ac909c235b4d1d yes 100