Will Montauban win?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Montauban win?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This Montauban market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $60.72 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 90¢ spread and 2909% implied yield largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This Montauban market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $60.72 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 90¢ spread and 2909% implied yield largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 50¢ price suggests genuine uncertainty, but with just 13 days until the April 25 resolution and minimal trading activity, the market lacks sufficient depth to reflect reliable probability estimates. The neutral regime and stable price movement from 51¢ to 50¢ offer no directional signal, though the cliff risk index of 1 indicates potential resolution complications if the game is postponed or canceled.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Montauban wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6eed678deb600ed135a027187dcca7f5af6e7f6673994a83fd3351141b399e58 yes 100