Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1424.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.9% on the No side, reflecting the 9¢ price that prices in only a 9% probability of Pacifica reaching a $500M FDV within one day of launch. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $8.7K open interest suggest thin liquidity despite the high yield, creating potential execution risk for larger positions. The recent price decline from 10¢ to 9¢ over seven days and the 259-day time horizon until expiry indicate either growing skepticism about Pacifica's launch prospects or a market repricing downward, though the high cliff risk index (10) suggests binary event risk around the actual launch date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pacifica's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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