What is the current probability for "Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 314.4% and 11.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 2/29¢·Spread 27¢·Vol $0·OI $2,542.345·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x72863a4738cca108fcc921776061aaa3ef2eebe39eb71b3693d5816aecb03e0f

7-day price335 snapshots · 11 regime

50¢16¢ current

Apr 81¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 314.4%

IY (No) 11.4%

Adj IY 314%

CRI 5

RV 1389%

VR 7.37

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	314.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	314%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1389%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.37	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

27¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:05:04 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x72863a4738cca108fcc921776061aaa3ef2eebe39eb71b3693d5816aecb03e0f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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