What is the current probability for "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 400.8% and 8.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 7/24¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $0·OI $3,725.51·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x72ecc8c75d781d0d8584afdac7928c85e62a1ee5c73e67c7d587da88aa941544

7-day price395 snapshots · 25 regime

52¢13¢ current

Apr 81¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Billion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Billions (https://x.com/billions_ntwk) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 400.8%

IY (No) 8.9%

Adj IY 401%

CRI 7

RV 2201%

VR 14.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	400.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	401%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2201%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	14.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:57:55 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x72ecc8c75d781d0d8584afdac7928c85e62a1ee5c73e67c7d587da88aa941544 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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