Will Lyon Rugby win?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will Lyon Rugby win?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 89¢ spread despite balanced 50¢ pricing, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale quotes.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 89¢ spread despite balanced 50¢ pricing, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale quotes. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2909.3% on both sides is a mathematical artifact of the thin spread relative to the 13-day timeframe, indicating this is not a genuine arbitrage opportunity but rather a liquidity mirage. The resolution date (April 25, 2026) has already passed relative to the market close date (May 2, 2026), which combined with the incomplete resolution criteria text suggests possible data quality issues that warrant verification before any position entry.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Lyon Rugby wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x77ddab29f084b011cb71d668b736675870962331590b74cfb2d707ea79975a5c yes 100