Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-04-25?

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-04-25?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $216.889 in open interest and an extreme 61¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting minimal real trading activity.

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43¢
Bid/Ask 10/75¢·Spread 65¢·Vol $0·OI $322.332·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0x87c19c7ccb4a732bd60a2365436ca8f0e819350462ef1071dcdeb0438da1949f
7-day price137 snapshots · 2 regime
43¢43¢ current
Apr 1837¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $216.889 in open interest and an extreme 61¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting minimal real trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (9471% for Yes, 4574% for No) are artifacts of the wide spread and low liquidity rather than genuine market expectations, with a realized volatility of 1013% indicating extreme price instability. With only 6 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the 41¢ price may not reflect current betting sentiment on CA Nacional Potosí's match outcome.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If CA Nacional Potosí wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 20606.4%
IY (No) 11727.0%
Adj IY 20606%
CRI 1
RV 615%
VR 0.40
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)20606.4%
IY (No)11727.0%
Adj IY20606%
CRI1
RV615%
VR0.40
IAR1.3/h
Overround0.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
65¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:39:19 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:38:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x87c19c7ccb4a732bd60a2365436ca8f0e819350462ef1071dcdeb0438da1949f yes 100

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