What is the current probability for "Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 44¢ (44% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 182.5% and 122.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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44¢

Bid/Ask 1/86¢·Spread 85¢·Vol $0·OI $293.726·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x96ebe822f17b6e6daf18670744dbb7605c032762c8b774cb705d35d822b4e1d5

7-day price132 snapshots · 3 regime

50¢44¢ current

Apr 281¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 182.5%

IY (No) 122.2%

Adj IY 182%

CRI 1

RV 874%

VR 6.07

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	182.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	122.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	182%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	874%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	6.07	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

85¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:00:55 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x96ebe822f17b6e6daf18670744dbb7605c032762c8b774cb705d35d822b4e1d5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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