What is the current probability for "Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 6 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 314.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 3/6¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $24.589·OI $3,007.481·Closes Apr 30, 2026·6d remaining

0x9860cfa85bbc6a835dc23f4f5671aff599dba5dd3a565fa91370916740fd16eb

7-day price99 snapshots · 5 regime

11¢5¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 314.5%

Adj IY >100,000%

CRI 19

RV 1404%

VR 0.43

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	314.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	>100,000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1404%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.43	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 9:38:11 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 9:23:14 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x9860cfa85bbc6a835dc23f4f5671aff599dba5dd3a565fa91370916740fd16eb yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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