What is the current probability for "Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 30, 2026. 36 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 24253.2% and 42.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 30, 2026.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $64,446.723·OI $57,876.555·Closes May 30, 2026·36d remaining

0xa1f08ec3bcc1434cb0b695bd5ee9f81268ef45fb73f752b3a1c1fb1d35750866

7-day price40 snapshots · 129 regime

5¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 23

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1151.6%Close-time delta 17390h

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 La Liga. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 La Liga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 24253.2%

IY (No) 42.1%

Adj IY 9095%

CRI 24

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	24253.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	42.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9095%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 9:11:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 9:08:12 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa1f08ec3bcc1434cb0b695bd5ee9f81268ef45fb73f752b3a1c1fb1d35750866 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions