Will the match end in a draw?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the match end in a draw?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% draw probability trading at only 8¢, generating an absurd 34,048% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag for illiquid or stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% draw probability trading at only 8¢, generating an absurd 34,048% implied yield on the Yes side—a red flag for illiquid or stale pricing. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a 9¢ spread and $198k open interest suggests this contract is essentially frozen with no recent trading activity, making the quoted price unreliable. With just 12 days until the April 25 game and a high Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be a dead market where the last trade may be significantly outdated.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa783c3944b50ffee5cef0ffcf47f72f76dbf8a0665d8b57119fc62453dea046c yes 100