Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 9-cent price implies an extremely low probability of Ink reaching a $2B FDV within one day of launch, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 1,425% implied yield—a massive risk premium that suggests either severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about launch timing/execution.
Analysis
The 9-cent price implies an extremely low probability of Ink reaching a $2B FDV within one day of launch, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 1,425% implied yield—a massive risk premium that suggests either severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about launch timing/execution. Volume is critically thin at just $65 in 24 hours against $18.6K open interest, creating liquidity concerns and potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges about Ink's launch date or initial valuation. The recent 10-cent decline over seven days combined with a high cliff risk index (10) indicates this market may face binary resolution risk, possibly tied to uncertainty around when the token actually launches or whether it will meet the "actively, publicly transferable" criteria.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ink's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ink (http://inkonchain.com/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xaa45535cb562715b92811f9563704ae852954a708511caf9435fd77acf141b57 yes 100