Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

This market prices an extremely low-probability outcome at 10¢ with a striking 1,270% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the remote but theoretically massive upside of regime change in Iran within 259 days. The 9/10 Cliff Risk Index and asymmetric yield structure (15.7% on No versus 1,270% on Yes) suggest traders are pricing in binary tail risk rather than genuine conviction, with the tight $6M daily volume and $110K open interest indicating limited liquidity for a geopolitical event of this magnitude. The flat 7-day price action and zero spread despite the extreme yield imbalance is unusual and may signal either consensus skepticism or insufficient market depth to move pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade